Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs SEALogan Gilbert
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 8.9
Model 13.8% Market 11.0% Gap +2.4pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 52.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.9% Market 67.7% Gap +11.8pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 12.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 12.2% Market -- Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 650 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
27 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity84.7
17
Hard-hit%35.6%
37
xBA0.279
13
xSLG0.447
31
xwOBA0.277
24 -44 vs proj
BB%11.0%
79 +18 vs proj
Bat speed67.6
27
K%25.4%
37 -21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
32
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
27
Outs Above Avg9.0 · CF
98
Range Runs8.1 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.9 · CF
94
Bolts38.0 · CF
89
SB Success Rate92.9% · CF
86
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
88

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherLogan Gilbert
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)