Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

James Wood

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs TORMax Scherzer
Sample1302.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.7
F 22.3
V 16.2
Model 21.7% Market 16.4% Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.3% Market 77.3% Gap +14.3pp
BetMGM -340 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.3% Market -- Gap +14.8pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.3%
99
Exit velocity95.2
99
Hard-hit%58.3%
99
xBA0.429
100
xSLG0.924
100
xwOBA0.420
100
BB%15.8%
98 +17 vs proj
Bat speed74.0
94
K%29.8%
16
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · RF
50
Arm Strength95.7 · RF
71
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
11
Range Runs-4.6 · RF
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
71
Bolts4.0 · RF
49
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
66
Sprint Speed27.4 · RF
51
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.5%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions69.1%
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.353 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.249 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.411
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.405
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.317 to 0.426
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherMax Scherzer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)