Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-28

James Wood

WSH · Hitter
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs TORShane Bieber
Sample1305.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.9
F 22.3
V 15.8
Model 20.5% Market 16.4% Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.3% Market 77.3% Gap +14.3pp
BetMGM -340 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 23.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.2% Market -- Gap +8.1pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%11.6%
99
Exit velocity95.3
100
Hard-hit%58.8%
99
xBA0.433
100
xSLG0.943
100
xwOBA0.425
100
BB%15.8%
98 +17 vs proj
Bat speed74.0
94
K%29.7%
16
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · RF
50
Arm Strength95.7 · RF
71
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
10
Range Runs-4.5 · RF
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
71
Bolts4.0 · RF
49
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
66
Sprint Speed27.4 · RF
51
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.5%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions69.1%
79
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
87
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.353 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.249 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.411
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.405
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.000
Opposing pitcherShane Bieber
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)