Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-05-19 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-19

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCWS vs SEABryce Miller
Sample419.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.6
F 11.1
V 14.2
Model 16.0% Market 22.7% Gap +4.0pp
DraftKings 325 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 62.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.4% Market 68.4% Gap -3.3pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.5% Market -- Gap +84.5pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
80
Exit velocity90.2
70
Hard-hit%43.3%
60
xBA0.329
54
xSLG0.697
90
xwOBA0.338
69
BB%9.0%
51
Bat speed74.4
96
K%30.2%
12
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength79.6 · SS
15
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
71
Range Runs6.4 · SS
98
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · SS
4
Sprint Speed26.3 · SS
26
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.3%
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3%
70
Correct Decisions68.9%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
51

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.052
Opposing pitcherBryce Miller
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)