Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-07-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-30

Daylen Lile

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample733.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.5
F 10.9
V 8.7
Model 17.7% Market 11.1% Gap +6.2pp
DraftKings 770 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.5% Market 77.5% Gap +14.2pp
BetMGM -345 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.1% Market -- Gap +6.2pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.8%
63
Exit velocity88.2
51
Hard-hit%36.0%
34 -16 vs proj
xBA0.317
45
xSLG0.514
52
xwOBA0.313
58 -21 vs proj
BB%6.0%
21
Bat speed69.4
46
K%18.2%
73
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.9 · LF
73
Arm Strength87.7 · LF
13
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
89
Range Runs2.2 · LF
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
55
Bolts23.0 · LF
81
SB Success Rate60.0% · LF
11
Sprint Speed29.3 · LF
94
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.8%
19
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.7%
71
Correct Decisions65.8%
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.281 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.406
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)