Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Hunter Goodman

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs NYYMax Fried
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 11.5
Model 17.0% Market 19.4% Gap -2.4pp
BetMGM 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.7% Market 71.8% Gap +13.2pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.4% Market -- Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.0%
95
Exit velocity90.5
83
Hard-hit%46.2%
85
xBA0.354
85
xSLG0.711
96
xwOBA0.322
71
BB%8.1%
46 +22 vs proj
Bat speed73.6
92
K%31.4%
12 -34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.4 · C
36
Catcher Throwing-0.8 · C
33
Framing Runs0.0 · C
56
Pop Time1.9 · C
58
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.7 · C
8
Bolts1.0 · C
12
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
5
Sprint Speed27.2 · C
44

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.273 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.067
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)