Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Edgar Quero

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 8 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs NYYMax Fried
Sample521.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 6.9
F 9.6
V 7.8
Model 9.6% Market 7.7% Gap +1.6pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.2% Market 68.2% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -215 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
8 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
79
Hard-hit%38.3%
47 -30 vs proj
xBA0.286
17
xSLG0.412
17
xwOBA0.264
13 -35 vs proj
BB%8.1%
46
Bat speed67.2
22
K%22.2%
52 -29 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.7 · C
4
Catcher Throwing0.4 · C
70
Framing Runs-3.8 · C
14
Pop Time1.9 · C
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.1 · C
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.341
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.264 to 0.353
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)