Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-30 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-30

Edgar Quero

CWS · Hitter
IN · 9 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs NYYRyan Weathers
Sample528.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.5
F 12.1
V 8.4
Model 11.5% Market 7.7% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.1% Market 71.0% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.6% Market -- Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
7 -26 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
77
Hard-hit%38.0%
45 -33 vs proj
xBA0.284
15
xSLG0.408
16
xwOBA0.263
12 -35 vs proj
BB%7.9%
44
Bat speed67.3
23
K%21.8%
54 -27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.6 · C
7
Catcher Throwing0.4 · C
70
Framing Runs-4.0 · C
13
Pop Time1.9 · C
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.1 · C
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.299
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherRyan Weathers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)