Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-05-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-17

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 3 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSD vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample1164.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 11.5
Model 17.0% Market 15.5% Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 68.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.2% Market 78.6% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
51 -34 vs proj
Exit velocity89.0
53
Hard-hit%48.9%
84 +21 vs proj
xBA0.335
60
xSLG0.581
70
xwOBA0.307
45 -41 vs proj
BB%8.0%
40 +17 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
75
K%25.9%
31 -33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · CF
87
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
73
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
72
Range Runs0.9 · CF
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · CF
93
Bolts1.0 · CF
16
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
88
Sprint Speed28.6 · CF
87

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)