Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Caleb Durbin

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs WSHBrad Lord
Sample695.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.4
F 0.0
V 12.5
Model 17.0% Market 10.6% Gap +6.0pp
DraftKings 810 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.2% Market 77.3% Gap +13.0pp
BetMGM -340 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.5% Market -- Gap +4.8pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
13
Exit velocity83.9
10
Hard-hit%30.6%
17
xBA0.283
15
xSLG0.389
10
xwOBA0.278
22 -37 vs proj
BB%5.7%
19
Bat speed66.0
12
K%15.2%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.8 · 3B
24
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
86
Range Runs2.0 · 3B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · 3B
86
SB Success Rate75.0% · 3B
32
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
69
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.4%
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2%
18
Correct Decisions65.4%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.310
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.351
RegressionNegative · -0.057
Opposing pitcherBrad Lord
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)