Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Chandler Simpson

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs TORKevin Gausman
Sample758.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.9
F 0.0
V 7.8
Model 3.2% Market 8.0% Gap -4.8pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 26.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.2% Market 49.4% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 430 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 30.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.2% Market -- Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity81.4
3
Hard-hit%14.7%
1
xBA0.286
18
xSLG0.327
2
xwOBA0.263
13 -46 vs proj
BB%4.7%
12 -16 vs proj
Bat speed61.8
1
K%9.1%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.2 · LF
18
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
74
Outs Above Avg8.0 · LF
99
Range Runs6.4 · LF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.8 · LF
99
Bolts71.0 · LF
100
SB Success Rate75.0% · LF
34
Sprint Speed29.5 · LF
96
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1%
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
18
Correct Decisions65.0%
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.284 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.068
Opposing pitcherKevin Gausman
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)