Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Jakob Marsee

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 9 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample558.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 12.2
V 11.3
Model 13.5% Market 9.4% Gap +3.8pp
DraftKings 930 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.6% Market 69.7% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.1%
13 -36 vs proj
Exit velocity85.2
19
Hard-hit%33.5%
26 -19 vs proj
xBA0.296
24
xSLG0.421
19
xwOBA0.299
41
BB%12.5%
87 +48 vs proj
Bat speed67.3
22
K%22.1%
53
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · CF
11
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
66
Outs Above Avg5.0 · CF
96
Range Runs4.6 · CF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · CF
36
SB Success Rate61.1% · CF
15
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
60
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.0%
87
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
34
Correct Decisions67.8%
66
Resists FastballwOBA 0.296
98
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.259 to 0.368
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)