Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Chase Meidroth

CWS · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCWS vs NYYMax Fried
Sample823.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.9
F 3.4
V 10.5
Model 8.0% Market 7.7% Gap 0.0pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.8% Market 69.7% Gap +12.1pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 21.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.9% Market -- Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.9%
19
Exit velocity86.7
32
Hard-hit%36.6%
36
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.448
28
xwOBA0.289
30 -19 vs proj
BB%9.0%
57
Bat speed64.2
4
K%23.1%
47 -41 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 2B
38
Arm Strength81.6 · 2B
11
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
88
Range Runs3.1 · 2B
81
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · 2B
62
Sprint Speed27.2 · 2B
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4%
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.6%
14
Correct Decisions65.2%
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.344
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.353
RegressionNegative · -0.076
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)