Mithrandir Metrics
ATH 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Jacob Wilson

ATH · Hitter
IL60 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATH vs TORJosé Soriano
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 6.7
F 0.0
V 7.9
Model 8.8% Market 8.9% Gap -0.4pp
FanDuel 980 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.4% Market 70.6% Gap +12.9pp
BetMGM -240 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
12
Exit velocity83.9
12
Hard-hit%29.3%
15
xBA0.299
27
xSLG0.394
12
xwOBA0.282
28
BB%3.4%
5
Bat speed62.6
2
K%11.1%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
74
Arm Strength91.8 · SS
82
Outs Above Avg9.0 · SS
95
Range Runs6.9 · SS
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · SS
49
Bolts1.0 · SS
11
Sprint Speed27.0 · SS
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.7%
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
45
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherJosé Soriano
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)