Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-06-11 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-11

Luke Keaschall

MIN · Hitter · bats R · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs DETKeider Montero
Sample409.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 6.6
V 6.6
Model 14.3% Market 10.5% Gap +3.4pp
DraftKings 820 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 48.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 48.3% Market 69.5% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.1% Market -- Gap +7.1pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.6%
19 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity84.9
15
Hard-hit%31.2%
18
xBA0.275
12
xSLG0.393
12
xwOBA0.285
28 -20 vs proj
BB%8.1%
41
Bat speed66.6
17
K%13.9%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.2 · 2B
28
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
18
Range Runs-2.4 · 2B
17
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · 2B
96
SB Success Rate81.8% · 2B
59
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
85
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.3%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
38
Correct Decisions68.2%
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.264 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.269
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.328
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)