Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Haggerty, Sam
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team TEX
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.284 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.182 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.261 |
| Observed weight | 23% |
xwOBA
0.210
0.234
0.261
0.287
0.311
wOBA
0.230
0.265
0.303
0.342
0.376
ISO
0.046
0.075
0.108
0.140
0.169
K%
16.6%
18.7%
21.2%
23.6%
25.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.2%
56
+21 vs proj
Barrel%0.0%
1
-16 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
17
Exit velocity77.4
1
Hard-hit%10.0%
0
-16 vs proj
K%27.7%
23
-40 vs proj
xBA0.244
4
xSLG0.285
1
xwOBA0.182
1
-33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Arm Runs-0.2 · LF
Limited
Range Runs1.0 · LF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0
17
Sprint Speed28.1
72
SB Success Rate100.0%
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.6% · rebadged research
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.3% · rebadged research
95
Correct Decisions70.1% · rebadged research
84
Mithrandir Stuff+48
1
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
80
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · insufficient sample
60
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274 · validated thin sample
58
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
82
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
80
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
37 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.111 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| Sample | 65 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 302 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 7 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.227 to 0.352 | +/- 0.063 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.048 to 0.207 | +/- 0.079 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 0.3% to 5.1% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.1% | 25.2% to 44.8% | +/- 9.8% |
| K% | 19.7% | 15.1% to 26.3% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 7.6% | 5.1% to 10.5% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.218 to 0.330 | +/- 0.056 |
vs LHP
331 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.170 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 5.6% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |
vs RHP
405 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.164 |
| K% | 11.5% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |