Mithrandir Metrics
Awards 6 races Refreshed Oct 18 06:00 AM ET
Analytics / Awards · projected season outcomes

Award model leaders · preseason + live market.

Preseason column is the season-opening model; Live Market column is current sportsbook consensus from the futures feed.

Races
6
Live bats
87
Live arms
43
Projected awards 6 Cached live leaders 130 Market odds 20261018
Award race

AL MVP

90.6%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Judge, Aaron Frozen preseason award surface NYY 90.6% ---- -- 99.4%
Raleigh, Cal Frozen preseason award surface SEA 7.0% ---- -- 72.1%
Witt Jr., Bobby Frozen preseason award surface KC 1.0% ---- -- 33.8%
Henderson, Gunnar Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.5% ---- -- 19.2%
Alonso, Pete Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.3% ---- -- 13.9%
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir Frozen preseason award surface TOR 0.2% ---- -- 16.0%
Rodríguez, Julio Frozen preseason award surface SEA 0.2% ---- -- 10.3%
Rooker, Brent IL-60 ATH 0.1% ---- -- 9.3%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Ben Rice Current-season tracker NYY 167.9 ---- 1.605 OPS
Willson Contreras Current-season tracker BOS 130.0 ---- 1.333 OPS
Jeremy Peña Current-season tracker HOU 110.7 ---- 1.125 OPS
José Ramírez Current-season tracker CLE 110.6 ---- 1.042 OPS
Cam Smith Current-season tracker HOU 106.9 ---- 1.089 OPS
Patrick Bailey Current-season tracker CLE 97.9 ---- 0.935 OPS
Chase Meidroth Current-season tracker CWS 88.3 ---- 0.857 OPS
Jose Altuve Current-season tracker HOU 86.5 ---- 0.875 OPS
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20261018.
Award race

NL MVP

63.3%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Soto, Juan Frozen preseason award surface NYM 63.3% ---- -- 90.5%
Schwarber, Kyle Frozen preseason award surface PHI 20.8% ---- -- 58.0%
Lindor, Francisco Frozen preseason award surface NYM 5.3% ---- -- 28.0%
Betts, Mookie Frozen preseason award surface LAD 2.1% ---- -- 15.7%
Olson, Matt Frozen preseason award surface ATL 1.5% ---- -- 11.3%
De La Cruz, Elly Frozen preseason award surface CIN 1.0% ---- -- 8.3%
Contreras, William Frozen preseason award surface MIL 0.9% ---- -- 9.8%
Wood, James Frozen preseason award surface WSH 0.7% ---- -- 6.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
William Contreras Current-season tracker MIL 122.2 ---- 1.157 OPS
Michael Harris II Current-season tracker ATL 113.4 ---- 1.115 OPS
Ozzie Albies Current-season tracker ATL 110.5 ---- 1.067 OPS
Kyle Schwarber Current-season tracker PHI 108.5 ---- 1.098 OPS
Manny Machado Current-season tracker SD 108.3 ---- 1.080 OPS
Nico Hoerner Current-season tracker CHC 108.1 ---- 1.125 OPS
Alec Bohm Current-season tracker PHI 104.4 ---- 1.052 OPS
Kyle Tucker Current-season tracker LAD 95.1 ---- 0.938 OPS
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20261018.
Award race

AL Cy Young

23.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skubal, Tarik Frozen preseason award surface DET 23.2% ---- -- 43.6%
Crochet, Garrett Frozen preseason award surface BOS 15.3% ---- -- 31.6%
Cease, Dylan Frozen preseason award surface TOR 7.2% ---- -- 17.2%
Brown, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface HOU 6.4% ---- -- 20.8%
Kirby, George Frozen preseason award surface SEA 5.5% ---- -- 17.7%
Ragans, Cole IL-60 KC 3.5% ---- -- 12.4%
deGrom, Jacob Frozen preseason award surface TEX 3.4% ---- -- 9.7%
Fried, Max Frozen preseason award surface NYY 3.3% ---- -- 11.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Freddy Peralta Current-season tracker TB 100.9 ---- 0.79 ERA
Cade Smith Current-season tracker CLE 99.9 ---- 1.00 ERA
Drew Rasmussen Current-season tracker TB 93.8 ---- 1.29 ERA
Gavin Williams Current-season tracker CLE 80.6 ---- 2.16 ERA
Hagen Smith Current-season tracker CWS 80.1 ---- 1.29 ERA
Cam Schlittler Current-season tracker NYY 79.4 ---- 1.69 ERA
Gerrit Cole Current-season tracker NYY 69.1 ---- 1.80 ERA
Payton Tolle Current-season tracker BOS 64.7 ---- 1.93 ERA
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20261018.
Award race

NL Cy Young

22.0%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skenes, Paul Frozen preseason award surface PIT 22.0% ---- -- 40.8%
Sánchez, Cristopher Frozen preseason award surface PHI 10.7% ---- -- 26.9%
Wheeler, Zack Frozen preseason award surface PHI 8.8% ---- -- 25.6%
Ohtani, Shohei Frozen preseason award surface LAD 8.4% ---- -- 24.3%
Webb, Logan Frozen preseason award surface SF 7.0% ---- -- 19.4%
Strider, Spencer IL-60 ATL 4.6% ---- -- 12.6%
Woodruff, Brandon IL-60 MIL 4.0% ---- -- 13.3%
Pivetta, Nick Frozen preseason award surface SD 3.5% ---- -- 10.6%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Michael King Current-season tracker SD 109.3 ---- 0.64 ERA
Robert Gasser Current-season tracker MIL 93.0 ---- 1.00 ERA
Tyler Mahle Current-season tracker ATL 86.3 ---- 1.35 ERA
Jesús Luzardo Current-season tracker PHI 73.6 ---- 1.80 ERA
Tarik Skubal Current-season tracker LAD 61.5 ---- 2.45 ERA
Logan Henderson Current-season tracker MIL 43.2 ---- 3.00 ERA
Jacob Misiorowski Current-season tracker MIL 35.4 ---- 3.24 ERA
Nick Pivetta Current-season tracker SD 29.5 ---- 3.52 ERA
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20261018.
Award race

AL Rookie of the Year

16.4%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Basallo, Samuel Frozen preseason award surface BAL 16.4% ---- -- 34.3%
Jensen, Carter Frozen preseason award surface KC 10.7% ---- -- 31.3%
Thorpe, Drew Out / inactive CWS 10.6% ---- -- 15.8%
Escarra, J.c. Frozen preseason award surface NYY 8.2% ---- -- 24.7%
Williams, Carson Out / inactive TB 7.9% ---- -- 17.2%
Gasper, Mickey Frozen preseason award surface BOS 7.0% ---- -- 15.8%
MacIver, Willie Frozen preseason award surface TEX 6.2% ---- -- 17.7%
Feduccia, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface TB 4.9% ---- -- 13.8%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Chase DeLauter Current-season tracker CLE 85.7 ---- 0.826 OPS
Sam Antonacci Current-season tracker CWS 70.3 ---- 0.707 OPS
Tristan Peters Current-season tracker CWS 66.7 ---- 0.681 OPS
Spencer Jones Current-season tracker NYY 52.7 ---- 0.535 OPS
Victor Mesa Jr. Current-season tracker TB 52.2 ---- 0.502 OPS
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20261018.
Award race

NL Rookie of the Year

14.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Johnston, Troy Frozen preseason award surface COL 14.2% ---- -- 23.8%
Hinds, Rece Frozen preseason award surface CIN 7.2% ---- -- 13.8%
Fulford, Braxton Frozen preseason award surface COL 5.6% ---- -- 11.4%
Acosta, Maximo Frozen preseason award surface MIA 5.1% ---- -- 12.3%
Dunn, Blake IL-60 CIN 4.0% ---- -- 8.7%
Senger, Hayden Frozen preseason award surface NYM 3.6% ---- -- 9.6%
Vivas, Jorbit Frozen preseason award surface WSH 3.5% ---- -- 9.0%
None Frozen preseason award surface PHI 3.5% ---- -- 10.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Cooper Pratt Current-season tracker MIL 64.5 ---- 0.655 OPS
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20261018.