Mithrandir Metrics
Awards 6 races Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Analytics / Awards · projected season outcomes

Award model leaders · preseason + live market.

Preseason column is the season-opening model; Live Market column is current sportsbook consensus from the futures feed.

Races
6
Live bats
160
Live arms
72
Projected awards 6 Cached live leaders 232 Market odds 20260601
Award race

AL MVP

90.6%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Judge, Aaron Frozen preseason award surface NYY 90.6% 57.4%-135 +33.1pp 99.4%
Raleigh, Cal IL-10 SEA 7.0% 0.8%+12500 +6.2pp 72.1%
Witt Jr.., Bobby Frozen preseason award surface KC 1.0% 22.2%+350 -21.3pp 33.8%
Henderson, Gunnar Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.5% 1.0%+10000 -0.5pp 19.2%
Alonso, Pete Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.3% 0.7%+15000 -0.3pp 13.9%
Guerrero Jr.., Vladimir Frozen preseason award surface TOR 0.2% 1.4%+7000 -1.2pp 16.0%
Rodríguez, Julio Frozen preseason award surface SEA 0.2% 2.4%+4000 -2.3pp 10.3%
Rooker, Brent Frozen preseason award surface ATH 0.1% ---- -- 9.3%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Yordan Alvarez Current-season tracker HOU 216.1 +42019.2% 1.050 OPS / 0.460 roll
Ben Rice Current-season tracker NYY 212.6 +19005.0% 1.055 OPS / 0.474 roll
Aaron Judge Current-season tracker NYY 190.4 -13557.4% 0.908 OPS / 0.421 roll
Byron Buxton Current-season tracker MIN 183.4 +40002.4% 0.886 OPS / 0.397 roll
Mike Trout Current-season tracker LAA 181.8 +70001.4% 0.903 OPS / 0.444 roll
Shea Langeliers Current-season tracker ATH 181.3 +30003.2% 0.909 OPS / 0.419 roll
Nick Kurtz Current-season tracker ATH 178.6 +17005.6% 0.939 OPS / 0.438 roll
Christian Walker Current-season tracker HOU 178.5 ---- 0.835 OPS / 0.384 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260601.
Award race

NL MVP

63.3%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Soto, Juan Frozen preseason award surface NYM 63.3% 3.6%+2700 +59.7pp 90.5%
Schwarber, Kyle Frozen preseason award surface PHI 20.8% 6.7%+1400 +14.1pp 58.0%
Lindor, Francisco IL-10 NYM 5.3% ---- -- 28.0%
Betts, Mookie Frozen preseason award surface LAD 2.1% ---- -- 15.7%
Olson, Matt Frozen preseason award surface ATL 1.5% 2.2%+4500 -0.7pp 11.3%
De La Cruz, Elly Frozen preseason award surface CIN 1.0% 2.2%+4500 -1.1pp 8.3%
Contreras, William Frozen preseason award surface MIL 0.9% 0.5%+20000 +0.4pp 9.8%
Wood, James Frozen preseason award surface WSH 0.7% 2.2%+4500 -1.4pp 6.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Kyle Schwarber Current-season tracker PHI 203.8 +14006.7% 0.940 OPS / 0.411 roll
James Wood Current-season tracker WSH 199.1 +45002.2% 0.959 OPS / 0.445 roll
Matt Olson Current-season tracker ATL 189.3 +45002.2% 0.883 OPS / 0.413 roll
Jordan Walker Current-season tracker STL 187.6 +45002.2% 0.908 OPS / 0.422 roll
Cj Abrams Current-season tracker WSH 185.5 +150000.7% 0.933 OPS / 0.441 roll
Drake Baldwin IL-10 ATL 184.3 ---- 0.932 OPS / 0.460 roll
Andy Pages Current-season tracker LAD 181.5 +100001.0% 0.881 OPS / 0.406 roll
Brandon Lowe Current-season tracker PIT 177.1 +300000.3% 0.875 OPS / 0.398 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260601.
Award race

AL Cy Young

23.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skubal, Tarik IL-15 DET 23.2% ---- -- 43.6%
Crochet, Garrett IL-15 BOS 15.3% ---- -- 31.6%
Cease, Dylan IL-15 TOR 7.2% 15.4%+550 -8.1pp 17.2%
Brown, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface HOU 6.4% ---- -- 20.8%
Kirby, George Frozen preseason award surface SEA 5.5% 1.6%+6000 +3.9pp 17.7%
Ragans, Cole Frozen preseason award surface KC 3.5% ---- -- 12.4%
deGrom, Jacob Frozen preseason award surface TEX 3.4% 14.3%+600 -10.9pp 9.7%
Fried, Max IL-15 NYY 3.3% ---- -- 11.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Cam Schlittler Current-season tracker NYY 142.9 +10050.0% 1.50 ERA / 26.6% K
Davis Martin Current-season tracker CWS 126.9 +22004.3% 2.00 ERA / 23.2% K
Nick Martinez Current-season tracker TB 119.3 +100001.0% 1.62 ERA / 15.9% K
Parker Messick Current-season tracker CLE 118.7 +50002.0% 2.21 ERA / 25.1% K
José Soriano Current-season tracker LAA 105.4 +50002.0% 2.65 ERA / 25.5% K
Gavin Williams Current-season tracker CLE 104.9 +10009.1% 3.07 ERA / 27.0% K
Emerson Hancock Current-season tracker SEA 94.0 +60001.6% 2.78 ERA / 21.9% K
Dylan Cease IL-15 TOR 91.8 +55015.4% 3.05 ERA / 31.9% K
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260601.
Award race

NL Cy Young

22.0%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skenes, Paul Frozen preseason award surface PIT 22.0% 15.4%+550 +6.7pp 40.8%
Sánchez, Cristopher Frozen preseason award surface PHI 10.7% 37.0%+170 -26.3pp 26.9%
Wheeler, Zack Frozen preseason award surface PHI 8.8% 2.2%+4500 +6.6pp 25.6%
Ohtani, Shohei Frozen preseason award surface LAD 8.4% 11.8%+750 -3.3pp 24.3%
Webb, Logan Frozen preseason award surface SF 7.0% 0.7%+15000 +6.3pp 19.4%
Strider, Spencer Frozen preseason award surface ATL 4.6% 0.7%+15000 +3.9pp 12.6%
Woodruff, Brandon IL-15 MIL 4.0% ---- -- 13.3%
Pivetta, Nick IL-15 SD 3.5% ---- -- 10.6%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Cristopher Sánchez Current-season tracker PHI 147.8 +17037.0% 1.47 ERA / 26.8% K
Jacob Misiorowski Current-season tracker MIL 146.2 +18535.1% 1.65 ERA / 33.7% K
Chris Sale Current-season tracker ATL 129.9 +85010.5% 2.01 ERA / 28.4% K
Chase Burns Current-season tracker CIN 125.6 +20004.8% 1.96 ERA / 30.7% K
Braxton Ashcraft Current-season tracker PIT 104.9 +50002.0% 2.77 ERA / 26.3% K
Eduardo Rodriguez Current-season tracker AZ 102.3 ---- 2.31 ERA / 19.5% K
Bryce Elder Current-season tracker ATL 99.8 +150000.7% 2.50 ERA / 20.6% K
Paul Skenes Current-season tracker PIT 99.1 +55015.4% 2.89 ERA / 29.7% K
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260601.
Award race

AL Rookie of the Year

16.4%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Basallo, Samuel Frozen preseason award surface BAL 16.4% 13.3%+650 +3.0pp 34.3%
Jensen, Carter Frozen preseason award surface KC 10.7% 1.8%+5500 +9.0pp 31.3%
Thorpe, Drew IL-60 CWS 10.6% ---- -- 15.8%
Escarra, J.c. Frozen preseason award surface NYY 8.2% ---- -- 24.7%
Williams, Carson Out / inactive TB 7.9% ---- -- 17.2%
Gasper, Mickey Frozen preseason award surface BOS 7.0% ---- -- 15.8%
MacIver, Willie Frozen preseason award surface TEX 6.2% ---- -- 17.7%
Feduccia, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface TB 4.9% ---- -- 13.8%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Chase DeLauter Current-season tracker CLE 146.5 +16005.9% 0.779 OPS / 0.410 roll
Kevin McGonigle Current-season tracker DET 139.1 +12045.5% 0.800 OPS / 0.390 roll
Carter Jensen Current-season tracker KC 128.7 +55001.8% 0.706 OPS / 0.333 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260601.
Award race

NL Rookie of the Year

14.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Johnston, Troy Frozen preseason award surface COL 14.2% ---- -- 23.8%
Hinds, Rece Out / inactive CIN 7.2% ---- -- 13.8%
Fulford, Braxton Frozen preseason award surface COL 5.6% ---- -- 11.4%
Acosta, Maximo Out / inactive MIA 5.1% ---- -- 12.3%
Dunn, Blake Frozen preseason award surface CIN 4.0% ---- -- 8.7%
Senger, Hayden Frozen preseason award surface NYM 3.6% ---- -- 9.6%
Vivas, Jorbit Frozen preseason award surface WSH 3.5% ---- -- 9.0%
None Frozen preseason award surface PHI 3.5% ---- -- 10.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Sal Stewart Current-season tracker CIN 169.5 +19533.9% 0.833 OPS / 0.426 roll
Tj Rumfield Current-season tracker COL 146.2 +65001.5% 0.804 OPS / 0.384 roll
Troy Johnston Current-season tracker COL 133.5 ---- 0.792 OPS / 0.406 roll
Konnor Griffin IL-10 PIT 128.6 +65013.3% 0.729 OPS / 0.356 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260601.