Mithrandir Metrics
Awards 6 races Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Analytics / Awards · projected season outcomes

Award model leaders · preseason + live market.

Preseason column is the season-opening model; Live Market column is current sportsbook consensus from the futures feed.

Races
6
Live bats
141
Live arms
49
Projected awards 6 Cached live leaders 190 Market odds 20260902
Award race

AL MVP

90.6%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Judge, Aaron IL-60 NYY 90.6% ---- -- 99.4%
Raleigh, Cal Frozen preseason award surface SEA 7.0% ---- -- 72.1%
Witt Jr., Bobby Frozen preseason award surface KC 1.0% 1.5%+6500 -0.6pp 33.8%
Henderson, Gunnar Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.5% ---- -- 19.2%
Alonso, Pete Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.3% 2.2%+4500 -1.9pp 13.9%
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir Frozen preseason award surface TOR 0.2% ---- -- 16.0%
Rodríguez, Julio Frozen preseason award surface SEA 0.2% ---- -- 10.3%
Rooker, Brent IL-60 ATH 0.1% ---- -- 9.3%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Junior Caminero Current-season tracker TB 282.3 +14006.7% 0.904 OPS / 0.405 roll
Yordan Alvarez Current-season tracker HOU 272.0 -2000099.5% 1.036 OPS
Pete Alonso Current-season tracker BAL 263.5 +45002.2% 0.859 OPS / 0.387 roll
Miguel Vargas Current-season tracker CWS 252.0 ---- 0.853 OPS / 0.387 roll
Ben Rice Current-season tracker NYY 241.6 +100001.0% 0.865 OPS
Yandy Díaz Current-season tracker TB 232.9 ---- 0.839 OPS / 0.399 roll
Randy Arozarena Current-season tracker SEA 230.1 ---- 0.837 OPS / 0.396 roll
Dillon Dingler Current-season tracker DET 230.0 +100001.0% 0.779 OPS / 0.367 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260902.
Award race

NL MVP

63.3%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Soto, Juan Frozen preseason award surface NYM 63.3% ---- -- 90.5%
Schwarber, Kyle Frozen preseason award surface PHI 20.8% ---- -- 58.0%
Lindor, Francisco Frozen preseason award surface NYM 5.3% ---- -- 28.0%
Betts, Mookie Frozen preseason award surface LAD 2.1% ---- -- 15.7%
Olson, Matt Frozen preseason award surface ATL 1.5% ---- -- 11.3%
De La Cruz, Elly Frozen preseason award surface CIN 1.0% ---- -- 8.3%
Contreras, William Frozen preseason award surface MIL 0.9% ---- -- 9.8%
Wood, James Frozen preseason award surface WSH 0.7% ---- -- 6.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Pete Crow-Armstrong Current-season tracker CHC 296.4 -150093.8% 0.943 OPS / 0.406 roll
Kyle Schwarber Current-season tracker PHI 278.2 ---- 0.878 OPS / 0.388 roll
Matt Olson Current-season tracker ATL 275.9 ---- 0.854 OPS / 0.384 roll
Sal Stewart Current-season tracker CIN 261.6 ---- 0.827 OPS / 0.386 roll
Hunter Goodman Current-season tracker COL 261.0 ---- 0.857 OPS / 0.398 roll
Jordan Walker Current-season tracker STL 258.8 ---- 0.850 OPS / 0.388 roll
Cj Abrams Current-season tracker WSH 256.1 ---- 0.852 OPS / 0.386 roll
Bryce Harper Current-season tracker PHI 253.5 ---- 0.901 OPS / 0.399 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260902.
Award race

AL Cy Young

23.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skubal, Tarik Frozen preseason award surface DET 23.2% ---- -- 43.6%
Crochet, Garrett IL-60 BOS 15.3% ---- -- 31.6%
Cease, Dylan Frozen preseason award surface TOR 7.2% 41.7%+140 -34.4pp 17.2%
Brown, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface HOU 6.4% ---- -- 20.8%
Kirby, George Frozen preseason award surface SEA 5.5% ---- -- 17.7%
Ragans, Cole IL-60 KC 3.5% ---- -- 12.4%
deGrom, Jacob Frozen preseason award surface TEX 3.4% ---- -- 9.7%
Fried, Max Frozen preseason award surface NYY 3.3% ---- -- 11.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Cam Schlittler Current-season tracker NYY 186.3 -16562.3% 2.09 ERA
Dylan Cease Current-season tracker TOR 186.2 +14041.7% 2.33 ERA / 33.6% K
Parker Messick Current-season tracker CLE 167.1 +70001.4% 2.46 ERA / 24.6% K
Drew Rasmussen Current-season tracker TB 156.2 +40002.4% 2.95 ERA / 24.3% K
Gavin Williams Current-season tracker CLE 155.8 +65001.5% 3.81 ERA / 30.5% K
Sonny Gray Current-season tracker BOS 154.6 +50002.0% 2.82 ERA / 22.9% K
Logan Gilbert Current-season tracker SEA 143.3 ---- 3.42 ERA / 26.3% K
Sean Burke Current-season tracker CWS 142.9 ---- 3.20 ERA / 25.5% K
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260902.
Award race

NL Cy Young

22.0%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skenes, Paul Frozen preseason award surface PIT 22.0% ---- -- 40.8%
Sánchez, Cristopher Frozen preseason award surface PHI 10.7% 4.8%+2000 +5.9pp 26.9%
Wheeler, Zack Frozen preseason award surface PHI 8.8% ---- -- 25.6%
Ohtani, Shohei Frozen preseason award surface LAD 8.4% ---- -- 24.3%
Webb, Logan Frozen preseason award surface SF 7.0% ---- -- 19.4%
Strider, Spencer IL-60 ATL 4.6% ---- -- 12.6%
Woodruff, Brandon IL-60 MIL 4.0% ---- -- 13.3%
Pivetta, Nick IL-60 SD 3.5% ---- -- 10.6%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Jacob Misiorowski Current-season tracker MIL 217.0 -125092.6% 1.73 ERA / 35.3% K
Cristopher Sánchez Current-season tracker PHI 196.3 +20004.8% 2.52 ERA / 26.7% K
Chris Sale Current-season tracker ATL 183.1 +70012.5% 2.06 ERA / 29.4% K
Jesús Luzardo Current-season tracker PHI 175.9 ---- 3.02 ERA / 28.8% K
Chase Burns Current-season tracker CIN 169.9 ---- 2.79 ERA / 29.9% K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Current-season tracker LAD 164.8 +45002.2% 2.56 ERA / 25.8% K
Eduardo Rodriguez Current-season tracker AZ 158.2 ---- 2.59 ERA / 18.7% K
Cade Cavalli Current-season tracker WSH 156.1 ---- 3.12 ERA / 24.6% K
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260902.
Award race

AL Rookie of the Year

16.4%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Basallo, Samuel Frozen preseason award surface BAL 16.4% ---- -- 34.3%
Jensen, Carter Frozen preseason award surface KC 10.7% ---- -- 31.3%
Thorpe, Drew IL-60 CWS 10.6% ---- -- 15.8%
Escarra, J.c. Out / inactive NYY 8.2% ---- -- 24.7%
Williams, Carson Out / inactive TB 7.9% ---- -- 17.2%
Gasper, Mickey Frozen preseason award surface BOS 7.0% ---- -- 15.8%
MacIver, Willie Out / inactive TEX 6.2% ---- -- 17.7%
Feduccia, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface TB 4.9% ---- -- 13.8%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Kevin McGonigle Current-season tracker DET 202.0 -47582.6% 0.788 OPS / 0.370 roll
Chase DeLauter Current-season tracker CLE 194.4 ---- 0.812 OPS / 0.391 roll
Carter Jensen Current-season tracker KC 193.7 ---- 0.722 OPS / 0.327 roll
Sam Antonacci Current-season tracker CWS 168.5 ---- 0.756 OPS / 0.366 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260902.
Award race

NL Rookie of the Year

14.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Johnston, Troy Frozen preseason award surface COL 14.2% ---- -- 23.8%
Hinds, Rece Out / inactive CIN 7.2% ---- -- 13.8%
Fulford, Braxton Out / inactive COL 5.6% ---- -- 11.4%
Acosta, Maximo Out / inactive MIA 5.1% ---- -- 12.3%
Dunn, Blake IL-60 CIN 4.0% ---- -- 8.7%
Senger, Hayden Out / inactive NYM 3.6% ---- -- 9.6%
Vivas, Jorbit Frozen preseason award surface WSH 3.5% ---- -- 9.0%
None Out / inactive PHI 3.5% ---- -- 10.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Sal Stewart Current-season tracker CIN 261.6 -65086.7% 0.827 OPS / 0.386 roll
Tj Rumfield Current-season tracker COL 201.2 +125000.8% 0.827 OPS / 0.386 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260902.