Mithrandir Metrics
Awards 6 races Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Analytics / Awards · projected season outcomes

Award model leaders · preseason + live market.

Preseason column is the season-opening model; Live Market column is current sportsbook consensus from the futures feed.

Races
6
Live bats
150
Live arms
64
Projected awards 6 Cached live leaders 214 Market odds 20260718
Award race

AL MVP

90.6%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Judge, Aaron Frozen preseason award surface NYY 90.6% ---- -- 99.4%
Raleigh, Cal Frozen preseason award surface SEA 7.0% ---- -- 72.1%
Witt Jr.., Bobby Frozen preseason award surface KC 1.0% 16.7%+500 -15.7pp 33.8%
Henderson, Gunnar Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.5% ---- -- 19.2%
Alonso, Pete Frozen preseason award surface BAL 0.3% 0.7%+15000 -0.3pp 13.9%
Guerrero Jr.., Vladimir Frozen preseason award surface TOR 0.2% ---- -- 16.0%
Rodríguez, Julio IL-10 SEA 0.2% 2.2%+4500 -2.0pp 10.3%
Rooker, Brent IL-60 ATH 0.1% ---- -- 9.3%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Yordan Alvarez Current-season tracker HOU 270.3 -16562.3% 1.067 OPS / 0.463 roll
Ben Rice Current-season tracker NYY 250.8 +14006.7% 0.974 OPS / 0.432 roll
Junior Caminero Current-season tracker TB 242.4 +45018.2% 0.931 OPS / 0.411 roll
Byron Buxton Current-season tracker MIN 220.6 +60001.6% 0.903 OPS / 0.399 roll
Willson Contreras Current-season tracker BOS 218.4 ---- 0.925 OPS / 0.424 roll
Nick Kurtz Current-season tracker ATH 216.6 +20004.8% 0.902 OPS / 0.416 roll
Miguel Vargas Current-season tracker CWS 211.0 +125000.8% 0.846 OPS / 0.388 roll
Pete Alonso Current-season tracker BAL 207.7 +150000.7% 0.815 OPS / 0.372 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260718.
Award race

NL MVP

63.3%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Soto, Juan Frozen preseason award surface NYM 63.3% 2.4%+4000 +60.9pp 90.5%
Schwarber, Kyle Frozen preseason award surface PHI 20.8% 3.2%+3000 +17.6pp 58.0%
Lindor, Francisco Frozen preseason award surface NYM 5.3% ---- -- 28.0%
Betts, Mookie Frozen preseason award surface LAD 2.1% ---- -- 15.7%
Olson, Matt Frozen preseason award surface ATL 1.5% 0.7%+15000 +0.8pp 11.3%
De La Cruz, Elly Frozen preseason award surface CIN 1.0% ---- -- 8.3%
Contreras, William Frozen preseason award surface MIL 0.9% ---- -- 9.8%
Wood, James Frozen preseason award surface WSH 0.7% 2.4%+4000 -1.7pp 6.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
James Wood Current-season tracker WSH 256.6 +40002.4% 0.979 OPS / 0.439 roll
Kyle Schwarber Current-season tracker PHI 245.2 +30003.2% 0.925 OPS / 0.409 roll
Matt Olson Current-season tracker ATL 231.7 +150000.7% 0.887 OPS / 0.398 roll
Jordan Walker Current-season tracker STL 225.0 +70001.4% 0.884 OPS / 0.405 roll
Hunter Goodman Current-season tracker COL 223.9 ---- 0.853 OPS / 0.411 roll
Pete Crow-Armstrong Current-season tracker CHC 219.6 +85010.5% 0.911 OPS / 0.399 roll
Juan Soto Current-season tracker NYM 216.9 +40002.4% 0.975 OPS / 0.432 roll
Cj Abrams Current-season tracker WSH 213.7 +150000.7% 0.864 OPS / 0.397 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260718.
Award race

AL Cy Young

23.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skubal, Tarik Frozen preseason award surface DET 23.2% 1.5%+6500 +21.7pp 43.6%
Crochet, Garrett IL-60 BOS 15.3% ---- -- 31.6%
Cease, Dylan Frozen preseason award surface TOR 7.2% 42.6%+135 -35.3pp 17.2%
Brown, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface HOU 6.4% ---- -- 20.8%
Kirby, George Frozen preseason award surface SEA 5.5% 1.4%+7000 +4.1pp 17.7%
Ragans, Cole IL-60 KC 3.5% ---- -- 12.4%
deGrom, Jacob Frozen preseason award surface TEX 3.4% 4.3%+2200 -0.9pp 9.7%
Fried, Max Frozen preseason award surface NYY 3.3% ---- -- 11.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Cam Schlittler Current-season tracker NYY 159.5 +12544.4% 2.05 ERA / 27.2% K
Dylan Cease Current-season tracker TOR 138.4 +13542.6% 2.56 ERA / 33.4% K
Parker Messick Current-season tracker CLE 127.6 +45002.2% 2.73 ERA / 24.1% K
Joe Ryan Current-season tracker MIN 126.4 +16005.9% 2.85 ERA / 27.3% K
Logan Gilbert Current-season tracker SEA 113.6 +27003.6% 3.32 ERA / 26.7% K
Nick Martinez Current-season tracker TB 113.4 ---- 2.65 ERA / 15.3% K
Gavin Williams Current-season tracker CLE 112.1 +35002.8% 3.81 ERA / 27.4% K
Jacob deGrom Current-season tracker TEX 108.2 +22004.3% 3.49 ERA / 28.3% K
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260718.
Award race

NL Cy Young

22.0%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Skenes, Paul Frozen preseason award surface PIT 22.0% 2.4%+4000 +19.6pp 40.8%
Sánchez, Cristopher Frozen preseason award surface PHI 10.7% 14.3%+600 -3.6pp 26.9%
Wheeler, Zack Frozen preseason award surface PHI 8.8% 7.1%+1300 +1.6pp 25.6%
Ohtani, Shohei Frozen preseason award surface LAD 8.4% 1.0%+10000 +7.4pp 24.3%
Webb, Logan Frozen preseason award surface SF 7.0% 0.6%+17500 +6.4pp 19.4%
Strider, Spencer IL-60 ATL 4.6% ---- -- 12.6%
Woodruff, Brandon IL-60 MIL 4.0% ---- -- 13.3%
Pivetta, Nick IL-60 SD 3.5% ---- -- 10.6%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Jacob Misiorowski Current-season tracker MIL 184.0 -37078.7% 1.62 ERA / 35.0% K
Cristopher Sánchez Current-season tracker PHI 152.9 +60014.3% 2.62 ERA / 26.1% K
Chris Sale Current-season tracker ATL 151.8 +70012.5% 2.06 ERA / 28.1% K
Chase Burns Current-season tracker CIN 142.5 +16005.9% 2.54 ERA / 30.0% K
Max Meyer Current-season tracker MIA 138.5 +100001.0% 2.58 ERA / 24.5% K
Eduardo Rodriguez Current-season tracker AZ 129.3 +225000.4% 2.29 ERA / 18.5% K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Current-season tracker LAD 126.0 +40002.4% 2.85 ERA / 25.8% K
Foster Griffin Current-season tracker WSH 125.7 ---- 2.77 ERA
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260718.
Award race

AL Rookie of the Year

16.4%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Basallo, Samuel Frozen preseason award surface BAL 16.4% 5.6%+1700 +10.8pp 34.3%
Jensen, Carter Frozen preseason award surface KC 10.7% 3.6%+2700 +7.2pp 31.3%
Thorpe, Drew Frozen preseason award surface CWS 10.6% ---- -- 15.8%
Escarra, J.c. Out / inactive NYY 8.2% ---- -- 24.7%
Williams, Carson Out / inactive TB 7.9% ---- -- 17.2%
Gasper, Mickey Out / inactive BOS 7.0% ---- -- 15.8%
MacIver, Willie Frozen preseason award surface TEX 6.2% ---- -- 17.7%
Feduccia, Hunter Frozen preseason award surface TB 4.9% ---- -- 13.8%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Samuel Basallo Current-season tracker BAL 173.5 +17005.6% 0.762 OPS / 0.370 roll
Chase DeLauter Current-season tracker CLE 169.1 +35002.8% 0.793 OPS / 0.393 roll
Kevin McGonigle Current-season tracker DET 168.0 -25071.4% 0.803 OPS / 0.386 roll
Carter Jensen Current-season tracker KC 166.9 +27003.6% 0.740 OPS / 0.328 roll
Sam Antonacci Current-season tracker CWS 157.9 +30003.2% 0.810 OPS / 0.390 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260718.
Award race

NL Rookie of the Year

14.2%
Award model leaders · preseason + live market
Candidate Team Preseason Model % Live Market % Gap Top 3
Johnston, Troy Frozen preseason award surface COL 14.2% ---- -- 23.8%
Hinds, Rece Frozen preseason award surface CIN 7.2% ---- -- 13.8%
Fulford, Braxton Frozen preseason award surface COL 5.6% ---- -- 11.4%
Acosta, Maximo Frozen preseason award surface MIA 5.1% ---- -- 12.3%
Dunn, Blake IL-10 CIN 4.0% ---- -- 8.7%
Senger, Hayden Out / inactive NYM 3.6% ---- -- 9.6%
Vivas, Jorbit Frozen preseason award surface WSH 3.5% ---- -- 9.0%
None Frozen preseason award surface PHI 3.5% ---- -- 10.7%
Rolling / live tracker
Candidate Team Live score Market Signal
Sal Stewart Current-season tracker CIN 204.3 +28026.3% 0.814 OPS / 0.396 roll
Tj Rumfield Current-season tracker COL 183.8 +20004.8% 0.851 OPS / 0.396 roll
Troy Johnston Current-season tracker COL 147.9 ---- 0.791 OPS / 0.390 roll
Preseason column = our season-opening model. Live Market column = current sportsbook consensus from 20260718.