Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-32 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / LAD · 2026
Espinal, Santiago
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team LAD
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 32
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.281 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.273 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.280 |
| Observed weight | 23% |
xwOBA
0.246
0.262
0.280
0.297
0.313
wOBA
0.294
0.330
0.371
0.412
0.449
ISO
0.075
0.093
0.114
0.134
0.153
K%
9.8%
11.9%
14.3%
16.6%
18.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%3.1%
4
-18 vs proj
Barrel%4.7%
44
+38 vs proj
Bat speed65.2
8
Exit velocity84.7
12
Hard-hit%34.0%
26
+20 vs proj
K%12.5%
94
xBA0.300
30
xSLG0.417
20
xwOBA0.273
18
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs1.2 · 3B
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.6 · 3B
30
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3% · rebadged research
22
Correct Decisions66.9% · rebadged research
56
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
33
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · insufficient sample
53
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
82
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.343 · validated
44
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358 · validated
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
44
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
51 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.100 |
| Sample | 64 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 414 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.271 | 0.242 to 0.317 | +/- 0.037 |
| ISO | 0.077 | 0.060 to 0.155 | +/- 0.047 |
| Barrel% | 1.1% | 0.3% to 3.2% | +/- 1.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 24.8% | 20.2% to 34.7% | +/- 7.3% |
| K% | 15.2% | 10.7% to 21.9% | +/- 5.6% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 5.2% to 9.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.268 | 0.217 to 0.313 | +/- 0.048 |
vs LHP
681 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.222 |
| K% | 9.0% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
1223 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.213 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 0.8% |