Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Johnson, Bryce
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team SD
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.282 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.174 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.262 |
| Observed weight | 19% |
xwOBA
0.209
0.234
0.262
0.290
0.315
wOBA
0.328
0.370
0.417
0.464
0.507
ISO
0.036
0.063
0.092
0.121
0.147
K%
18.3%
20.8%
23.5%
26.3%
28.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.0%
92
+64 vs proj
Barrel%0.0%
1
-15 vs proj
Bat speed62.2
2
Exit velocity76.7
0
Hard-hit%22.2%
4
K%32.0%
6
-46 vs proj
xBA0.221
1
xSLG0.256
0
xwOBA0.174
0
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Arm Runs1.1 · CF
Limited
Range Runs0.2 · CF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts1.0 · CF
17
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
65
SB Success Rate75.0% · CF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9% · rebadged research
33
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
39
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
73
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
60
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.345 · validated
40
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
27 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.104 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.140 |
| Sample | 50 PA |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 255 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.278 | 0.201 to 0.328 | +/- 0.063 |
| ISO | 0.100 | 0.055 to 0.189 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 2.3% | 0.5% to 5.2% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 27.6% | 20.6% to 41.6% | +/- 10.5% |
| K% | 21.5% | 16.0% to 28.4% | +/- 6.2% |
| BB% | 6.9% | 3.4% to 9.3% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.311 | 0.215 to 0.370 | +/- 0.077 |
vs LHP
122 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.135 |
| K% | 10.2% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |
vs RHP
153 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.133 |
| K% | 11.1% |
| BB% | 2.8% |
| Barrel | 1.0% |