Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / CHC · 2026

Milner, Hoby

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
18.0% K%
Range
14.1% to 26.9%
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason4.31
ERA current pace2.59
ERA rolling p503.77
Observed weight31%
ERA
2.27 2.98 3.77 4.56 5.27
FIP
2.80 3.30 3.86 4.42 4.93
K%
12.4% 14.6% 17.0% 19.4% 21.6%
BB%
4.0% 5.2% 6.5% 7.9% 9.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.5%
91
Barrel allowed5.7%
75
Fastball velo87.0
1
Hard-hit allowed35.6%
74
K%12.8%
2 -18 vs proj
Whiff%12.8%
1
xwOBA allowed0.347
22 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Milner, Hoby · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.3512026-05-21: 0.3512026-05-23: 0.3422026-05-24: 0.3422026-05-25: 0.3422026-05-26: 0.3422026-05-28: 0.3542026-05-29: 0.3542026-05-30: 0.3502026-05-31: 0.3472026-06-01: 0.3472026-06-02: 0.347 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Milner, Hoby · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 13%13%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Milner, Hoby · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 43.9%Sweeper: 26.3%Changeup: 17.8%4-Seam Fastball: 12.0% MIX SI 44%ST 26%CH 18%FF 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Milner, Hoby · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.0, IVB 3.0SIST: HB -0.4, IVB 3.8STCH: HB -1.0, IVB 3.8CHFF: HB -0.0, IVB 2.4FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 44.2% 161 104 limited sample
SL 25.8% 94 105 limited sample
CH 18.1% 66 102 limited sample
FB 11.8% 43 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.259 vs 0.294 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 35%, Sinker 33%, Changeup 17%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.45
K% Δ-0.051
Sample27.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings41.2----
Batters Faced171----
K%18.0%14.1% to 26.9%+/- 6.4%
BB%6.8%3.9% to 10.8%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%15.1%11.2% to 21.7%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.210.24 to 1.83+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3150.261 to 0.366+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.1%3.0% to 11.6%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.052.51 to 6.49+/- 1.99
FIP4.172.55 to 5.37+/- 1.41
WHIP1.3381.046 to 1.631+/- 0.292
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

671 career BF

xwOBA0.259
K%19.9%
BB%4.7%
Barrel5.4%
vs RHH

857 career BF

xwOBA0.294
K%18.5%
BB%6.9%
Barrel7.3%