Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 28%, 4-Seam Fastball 22%, Slider 19%.
Pitcher projection / ATH · 2026
Barlow, Scott
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team ATH
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.94 |
| ERA current pace | 2.88 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.59 |
| Observed weight | 33% |
ERA
2.04
2.77
3.59
4.40
5.14
FIP
3.64
3.96
4.33
4.69
5.02
K%
19.4%
21.4%
23.7%
26.0%
28.0%
BB%
9.7%
11.0%
12.5%
13.9%
15.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%15.1%
4
Barrel allowed6.9%
62
Fastball velo89.1
3
Hard-hit allowed30.6%
92
K%19.3%
27
-33 vs proj
Whiff%34.6%
98
+25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.302
61
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+91
8
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
5Pitches
2026Season
35%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 38.0% | 142 | 93 | limited sample |
| CB | 33.4% | 125 | 98 | limited sample |
| SI | 16.6% | 62 | 88 | limited sample |
| FB | 12.0% | 45 | 94 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.05 |
| K% Δ | -0.047 |
| Sample | 26.7 IP |
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 67.4 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 297 | -- | -- |
| K% | 24.1% | 19.9% to 32.0% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 11.9% | 8.8% to 16.0% | +/- 3.6% |
| Whiff% | 26.4% | 24.0% to 33.9% | +/- 5.0% |
| HR/9 | 1.17 | 0.43 to 1.75 | +/- 0.66 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.305 | 0.254 to 0.353 | +/- 0.049 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.3% | 4.3% to 9.8% | +/- 2.8% |
| ERA | 3.93 | 2.01 to 6.16 | +/- 2.08 |
| FIP | 4.19 | 2.72 to 4.57 | +/- 0.93 |
| WHIP | 1.287 | 1.024 to 1.718 | +/- 0.347 |
vs LHH
882 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 23.8% |
| BB% | 14.0% |
| Barrel | 7.0% |
vs RHH
1136 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.301 |
| K% | 23.5% |
| BB% | 12.1% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |