Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / MIA · 2026

King, John

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
15.3% K%
Range
10.9% to 22.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team MIA Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-02
ERA preseason3.63
ERA current pace1.93
ERA rolling p503.13
Observed weight30%
ERA
1.51 2.28 3.13 3.97 4.74
FIP
3.16 3.64 4.18 4.72 5.20
K%
13.6% 15.6% 17.9% 20.1% 22.1%
BB%
5.0% 6.2% 7.5% 8.8% 10.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-02
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
46 -31 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
55
Fastball velo90.6
6
Hard-hit allowed31.3%
89
K%20.8%
38 +29 vs proj
Whiff%20.8%
31
xwOBA allowed0.287
74 +33 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-02
Mithrandir Stuff+100
33
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed King, John · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-19: 0.2602026-05-21: 0.2562026-05-23: 0.2562026-05-24: 0.2562026-05-25: 0.2702026-05-26: 0.2702026-05-28: 0.2702026-05-29: 0.2702026-05-30: 0.2702026-05-31: 0.2702026-06-01: 0.2872026-06-02: 0.287 2026-05-19 2026-06-02 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile King, John · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 21%21%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 31%31% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, John · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.5%Slider: 23.8%Changeup: 19.1%Sweeper: 13.9%Curveball: 9.4%4-Seam Fastball: 3.3% MIX SI 30%SL 24%CH 19%ST 14%CU 9%FF 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal King, John · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.0, IVB 2.7SISL: HB -0.2, IVB 3.5SLCH: HB -0.2, IVB 3.5CHST: HB -0.4, IVB 3.6STCU: HB 0.3, IVB 4.6CUFF: HB -0.5, IVB 1.9FF horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 38.3% 128 107 limited sample
SI 31.1% 104 94 limited sample
CH 19.5% 65 95 limited sample
CB 8.4% 28 108 limited sample
FB 2.7% 9 82 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.270 vs 0.304 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 60%, Changeup 19%, Slider 14%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.51
K% Δ+0.055
Sample27.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.3----
Batters Faced166----
K%15.3%10.9% to 22.2%+/- 5.7%
BB%6.7%3.9% to 10.5%+/- 3.3%
Whiff%18.5%15.2% to 23.6%+/- 4.2%
HR/91.300.48 to 2.16+/- 0.84
xwOBA Against0.3240.274 to 0.381+/- 0.053
Barrel% Allowed6.9%3.0% to 9.7%+/- 3.4%
ERA4.442.08 to 6.30+/- 2.11
FIP4.273.06 to 5.73+/- 1.34
WHIP1.4211.083 to 1.822+/- 0.369
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

442 career BF

xwOBA0.270
K%13.8%
BB%4.6%
Barrel3.9%
vs RHH

729 career BF

xwOBA0.304
K%13.0%
BB%6.3%
Barrel5.5%