King, John
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.63 |
| ERA current pace | 1.93 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.13 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL | 38.3% | 128 | 107 | limited sample |
| SI | 31.1% | 104 | 94 | limited sample |
| CH | 19.5% | 65 | 95 | limited sample |
| CB | 8.4% | 28 | 108 | limited sample |
| FB | 2.7% | 9 | 82 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -2.51 |
| K% Δ | +0.055 |
| Sample | 27.0 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 38.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 166 | -- | -- |
| K% | 15.3% | 10.9% to 22.2% | +/- 5.7% |
| BB% | 6.7% | 3.9% to 10.5% | +/- 3.3% |
| Whiff% | 18.5% | 15.2% to 23.6% | +/- 4.2% |
| HR/9 | 1.30 | 0.48 to 2.16 | +/- 0.84 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.324 | 0.274 to 0.381 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 6.9% | 3.0% to 9.7% | +/- 3.4% |
| ERA | 4.44 | 2.08 to 6.30 | +/- 2.11 |
| FIP | 4.27 | 3.06 to 5.73 | +/- 1.34 |
| WHIP | 1.421 | 1.083 to 1.822 | +/- 0.369 |
442 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 13.8% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 3.9% |
729 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.304 |
| K% | 13.0% |
| BB% | 6.3% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |