Alexander, Jason
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 4.44 |
| ERA current pace | 9.33 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 5.70 |
| Observed weight | 26% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CH | 35.1% | 105 | 101 | limited sample |
| SI | 23.4% | 70 | 97 | limited sample |
| FB | 23.1% | 69 | 104 | limited sample |
| SL | 11.0% | 33 | 103 | limited sample |
| FC | 7.4% | 22 | 100 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 68.3 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 298 | -- | -- |
| K% | 19.0% | 14.0% to 22.3% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 7.1% | 5.2% to 9.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Whiff% | 20.8% | 17.7% to 25.0% | +/- 3.6% |
| HR/9 | 1.60 | 1.03 to 2.44 | +/- 0.70 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.338 | 0.287 to 0.367 | +/- 0.040 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.5% | 5.7% to 11.0% | +/- 2.7% |
| ERA | 4.85 | 3.12 to 6.57 | +/- 1.72 |
| FIP | 4.68 | 3.73 to 5.99 | +/- 1.13 |
| WHIP | 1.317 | 1.021 to 1.647 | +/- 0.313 |
346 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.288 |
| K% | 14.1% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 7.9% |
348 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.263 |
| K% | 15.8% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 6.8% |