Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-18

Matthew Boyd

CHC · SP · throws L · age 35
Projected starter Opp K 23.2% Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINopponent
Sample1134.0career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 14 rows
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts5.5
P 42.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 42.7% Market -- Gap +7.3pp
Internal -- tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.40
35
ERA4.50
37
BB%6.8%
78
K%23.5%
58 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.340
25 -21 vs proj
Barrel allowed12.0%
6 -32 vs proj
Fastball velo92.8
25
Hard-hit allowed50.7%
1
Whiff%26.2%
73 +30 vs proj
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+109
Small sample
Curveball Stuff+103
Small sample
Slider Stuff+102
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range16.8% to 26.2%
Opponent K23.2%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)