Mithrandir Metrics

PITCHER OUTS 2026-09-01 · saved artifact ROWS 10 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-09-01

Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Pitcher Outs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Signal caveat Market context only.

Pitcher outs is running as market context only right now. On the graded record to date the model's over/under probabilities have not shown reliable signal at posted lines, and daily recalibration is intentionally pulling them toward neutral. Treat this board as context, not conviction, while the sample accumulates.

572 / 300 fresh graded predictions. Auto-review at 300 fresh graded predictions (since 2026-07-01): the caveat lifts only when the calibration curve is monotone and Brier is at or under the base rate.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Pitcher Outs board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	Outs proj	IP	BF	Recent K	Recent BB	Best line
01	Nick LodoloCIN	CIN vs SDhitter-friendly	P 51.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	51.1%Over prob · Palantir	40.6%no-vig	+12.28%	16.00count	5.33leash	21.375volume	0.2591traffic	0.0879traffic	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
02	Logan WebbSF	SF vs PITneutral	P 50.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 18.5	50.0%Over prob · Palantir	39.7%no-vig	+5.35%	18.24count	6.08leash	24.167volume	0.2232traffic	0.0557traffic	FanDuel 134 avg 1 books
03	Aj Smith-ShawverATL	ATL vs WSHneutral	P 49.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	49.0%Over prob · Palantir	39.4%no-vig	+3.50%	14.12count	4.71leash	20.137volume	0.2084traffic	0.1274traffic	FanDuel 136 avg 1 books
04	Sean ManaeaNYM	NYM vs TBneutral	P 50.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	49.2%Under prob · Palantir	39.8%no-vig	+41.89%	14.43count	4.81leash	22.409volume	0.2598traffic	0.0742traffic	FanDuel -182 avg 1 books
05	Jake IrvinWSH	WSH vs ATLneutral	P 51.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	51.1%Over prob · Palantir	41.9%no-vig	+10.81%	16.02count	5.34leash	22.954volume	0.2152traffic	0.1166traffic	FanDuel 122 avg 1 books
06	Gavin WilliamsCLE	CLE vs TORneutral	P 49.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	50.7%Under prob · Palantir	45.8%no-vig	+10.71%	16.20count	5.40leash	21.901volume	0.3047traffic	0.0921traffic	FanDuel -138 avg 1 books
07	Spencer ArrighettiTOR	TOR vs CLEneutral	P 50.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 14.5	49.8%Under prob · Palantir	45.7%no-vig	+1.22%	14.47count	4.82leash	20.714volume	0.2288traffic	0.1585traffic	FanDuel -140 avg 1 books
08	Matthew BoydCHC	CHC vs MILneutral	P 49.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 17.5	50.7%Under prob · Palantir	47.2%no-vig	+8.26%	16.81count	5.60leash	23.704volume	0.2558traffic	0.08traffic	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books
09	Freddy PeraltaTB	TB vs NYMneutral	P 51.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 15.5	51.3%Over prob · Palantir	48.6%no-vig	+5.02%	16.12count	5.37leash	21.985volume	0.2777traffic	0.0709traffic	FanDuel -108 avg 1 books
10	Paul SkenesPIT	PIT vs SFneutral	P 50.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 16.5	49.9%Under prob · Palantir	47.7%no-vig	+0.47%	16.41count	5.47leash	21.618volume	0.2717traffic	0.1029traffic	FanDuel -130 avg 1 books