Mithrandir Metrics

STRIKEOUTS 2026-07-18 · saved artifact ROWS 23 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist

Lane Health 2026-07-18

Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building

Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building

Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building

Model Lane

Strikeouts

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Strikeouts board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	K proj	5+	6+	7+	Opp K%	Recent K%	Best line
01	Gavin WilliamsCLE	CLE vs PIThitter-friendly	P 23.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 7.5 5 of 5	76.8%Under prob · Palantir	57.5%no-vig	+2.14%	5.64count	62.7%ladder	47.9%ladder	34.3%ladder	24.1%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel 122 avg 1 books
02	Max MeyerMIA	MIA vs MILpitcher-friendly	P 33.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5 3 of 5	66.9%Under prob · Palantir	49.0%no-vig	+1.76%	4.66count	48.2%ladder	33.1%ladder	21.1%ladder	22.1%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -118 avg 1 books
03	Taj BradleyMIN	MIN vs CHCneutral	P 40.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5 3 of 5	59.7%Under prob · Palantir	42.8%no-vig	+9.72%	5.13count	55.6%ladder	40.3%ladder	27.3%ladder	21.6%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -154 avg 1 books
04	Jesús LuzardoPHI	PHI vs NYMhitter-friendly	P 42.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 7.5 2 of 2	57.6%Under prob · Palantir	54.8%no-vig	+7.63%	6.23count	69.9%ladder	56.0%ladder	42.4%ladder	21.9%lineup	0.0%form	DraftKings -152 avg 1 books
05	Brandon PfaadtAZ	AZ vs STLneutral	P 65.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 3.5 1 of 3	65.8%Over prob · Palantir	52.9%no-vig	+0.95%	4.71count	49.0%ladder	33.8%ladder	21.7%ladder	21.6%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -128 avg 1 books
06	Tomoyuki SuganoCOL	COL vs CINhitter-friendly	P 48.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 4.5 2 of 2	48.9%Over prob · Palantir	18.9%no-vig	+1.11%	3.69count	31.6%ladder	18.6%ladder	10.1%ladder	23.9%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel 172 avg 1 books
07	Spencer ArrighettiHOU	HOU vs BALneutral	P 44.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5 3 of 5	55.7%Under prob · Palantir	43.7%no-vig	+5.66%	5.40count	59.5%ladder	44.3%ladder	31.0%ladder	23.0%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -148 avg 1 books
08	Ryan WeathersNYY	NYY vs LADhitter-friendly	P 36.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5	63.7%Under prob · Palantir	52.4%no-vig	+1.60%	4.87count	51.6%ladder	36.3%ladder	23.8%ladder	21.6%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -102 avg 1 books
09	J.t. GinnATH	ATH vs WSHneutral	P 67.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 3.5 1 of 2	67.7%Over prob · Palantir	56.7%no-vig	+1.28%	4.85count	51.3%ladder	36.0%ladder	23.5%ladder	20.9%lineup	0.0%form	DraftKings -151 avg 1 books
10	Bryan WooSEA	SEA vs SFpitcher-friendly	P 44.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5	55.8%Under prob · Palantir	47.1%no-vig	+5.81%	5.39count	59.4%ladder	44.2%ladder	30.8%ladder	23.6%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -128 avg 1 books
11	Emmet SheehanLAD	LAD vs NYYhitter-friendly	P 40.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5	59.9%Under prob · Palantir	51.9%no-vig	+9.87%	5.12count	55.4%ladder	40.1%ladder	27.2%ladder	22.8%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -104 avg 1 books
12	Logan AllenCLE	CLE vs PITpitcher-friendly	P 42.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 4.5	57.6%Under prob · Palantir	--no-vig	+7.60%	4.31count	42.4%ladder	27.7%ladder	16.8%ladder	24.1%lineup	0.0%form	Internal -- avg 1 books
13	Matthew BoydCHC	CHC vs MINneutral	P 42.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5	57.3%Under prob · Palantir	--no-vig	+7.30%	5.29count	57.9%ladder	42.7%ladder	29.5%ladder	23.2%lineup	0.0%form	Internal -- avg 1 books
14	Sean ManaeaNYM	NYM vs PHIhitter-friendly	P 37.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5 3 of 5	62.9%Under prob · Palantir	56.7%no-vig	+2.38%	4.92count	52.4%ladder	37.1%ladder	24.5%ladder	22.4%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel 118 avg 1 books
15	Dustin MaySTL	STL vs AZneutral	P 52.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5 1 of 4	47.8%Under prob · Palantir	42.5%no-vig	+2.20%	3.87count	34.8%ladder	21.2%ladder	11.9%ladder	20.6%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -156 avg 1 books
16	Logan WebbSF	SF vs SEApitcher-friendly	P 47.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5	52.6%Under prob · Palantir	47.6%no-vig	+2.57%	5.61count	62.4%ladder	47.4%ladder	33.9%ladder	25.1%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
17	Zack LittellWSH	WSH vs ATHneutral	P 54.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 3.5	54.3%Over prob · Palantir	--no-vig	+4.34%	3.99count	36.9%ladder	22.9%ladder	13.2%ladder	24.1%lineup	0.0%form	Internal -- avg 1 books
18	Griffin CanningSD	SD vs KCneutral	P 50.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5 1 of 3	49.1%Under prob · Palantir	45.7%no-vig	+0.93%	3.80count	33.5%ladder	20.2%ladder	11.2%ladder	19.9%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -136 avg 1 books
19	Trevor RogersBAL	BAL vs HOUneutral	P 43.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 4.5 2 of 4	56.6%Under prob · Palantir	53.3%no-vig	+6.58%	4.37count	43.4%ladder	28.6%ladder	17.5%ladder	20.3%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel 102 avg 1 books
20	Shane BieberTOR	TOR vs CWSneutral	P 54.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 4.5 2 of 5	45.6%Under prob · Palantir	44.6%no-vig	+10.94%	5.05count	54.4%ladder	39.1%ladder	26.2%ladder	23.4%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -142 avg 1 books
21	Davis MartinCWS	CWS vs TORneutral	P 52.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 3.5 1 of 3	47.3%Under prob · Palantir	46.3%no-vig	+2.74%	3.90count	35.3%ladder	21.6%ladder	12.2%ladder	19.4%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -132 avg 1 books
22	Tarik SkubalDET	DET vs LAAneutral	P 50.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 6.5	50.9%Over prob · Palantir	--no-vig	+0.89%	6.88count	76.5%ladder	64.0%ladder	50.9%ladder	25.4%lineup	0.0%form	Internal -- avg 1 books
23	MacKenzie GoreTEX	TEX vs ATLneutral	P 48.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 5.5 3 of 5	51.3%Under prob · Palantir	50.9%no-vig	+1.27%	5.70count	63.5%ladder	48.7%ladder	35.1%ladder	22.4%lineup	0.0%form	FanDuel -113 avg 1 books