Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir 2026-09-02 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Strikeouts

Strikeouts · Palantir.

Starter strikeout probabilities, alt-ladder context, and lane health in one dense market view.

Rows
19
Date
2026-09-02
Lane
Palantir
STRIKEOUTS 2026-09-02 · saved artifact ROWS 19 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist
Model-market gaps are provisional This market's model lanes don't yet have enough graded results to validate the gaps. Treat them as early model signals, not established advantages.
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable

Model Lane

Strikeouts

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Strikeouts board
#PlayerMatchupThree lanesLineModelMarketGap K proj5+6+7+Opp K%Recent K% Best line
01
MIL vs CHCneutral
P 25.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 7.5
4 of 4
74.2%Under prob · Palantir 47.1%no-vig +0.99% 5.86count65.6%ladder51.0%ladder37.3%ladder21.6%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -128 avg 1 books
02
NYY vs LAAneutral
P 28.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 7.5
71.3%Under prob · Palantir 45.3%no-vig +9.40% 6.10count68.5%ladder54.3%ladder40.6%ladder25.4%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -138 avg 1 books
03
ATH vs TEXneutral
P 33.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 5.5
3 of 5
66.3%Under prob · Palantir 48.1%no-vig +1.11% 4.70count48.9%ladder33.7%ladder21.6%ladder21.8%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -122 avg 1 books
04
LAD vs STLneutral
P 39.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 6.5
60.9%Under prob · Palantir 46.7%no-vig +2.80% 5.99count67.2%ladder52.8%ladder39.1%ladder21.6%lineup0.0%form DraftKings -129 avg 1 books
05
MIA vs KCneutral
P 45.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 4.5
1 of 2
54.4%Under prob · Palantir 40.7%no-vig +4.40% 4.50count45.6%ladder30.6%ladder19.1%ladder19.9%lineup0.0%form DraftKings -174 avg 1 books
06
SF vs PITneutral
P 43.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 4.5
2 of 5
56.2%Under prob · Palantir 43.3%no-vig +6.25% 4.39count43.8%ladder28.9%ladder17.7%ladder24.1%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -150 avg 1 books
07
HOU vs CWSneutral
P 44.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 4.5
55.2%Under prob · Palantir 44.6%no-vig +5.23% 4.45count44.8%ladder29.8%ladder18.5%ladder23.4%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -142 avg 1 books
08
KC vs MIAneutral
P 45.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 4.5
2 of 5
54.2%Under prob · Palantir 44.1%no-vig +4.23% 4.51count45.8%ladder30.8%ladder19.2%ladder21.6%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -146 avg 1 books
09
BAL vs COLhitter-friendly
P 36.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 5.5
3 of 5
63.5%Under prob · Palantir 55.1%no-vig +1.75% 4.88count51.7%ladder36.5%ladder23.9%ladder26.1%lineup0.0%form FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
10
CLE vs TORneutral
P 57.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 4.5
2 of 4
57.6%Over prob · Palantir 49.6%no-vig +7.60% 5.27count57.6%ladder42.4%ladder29.2%ladder19.4%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -111 avg 1 books
11
ATL vs WSHneutral
P 46.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 4.5
2 of 4
46.8%Over prob · Palantir 41.1%no-vig +3.24% 4.57count46.8%ladder31.7%ladder20.0%ladder20.9%lineup0.0%form FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
12
SEA vs BOSneutral
P 43.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 4.5
2 of 4
56.9%Under prob · Palantir 51.5%no-vig +6.92% 4.35count43.1%ladder28.3%ladder17.2%ladder23.5%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -106 avg 1 books
13
TOR vs CLEneutral
P 44.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 6.5
4 of 5
55.4%Under prob · Palantir 50.4%no-vig +5.35% 6.40count71.8%ladder58.2%ladder44.6%ladder20.8%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -111 avg 1 books
14
WSH vs ATLneutral
P 43.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 3.5
56.8%Under prob · Palantir --no-vig +4.74% 3.50count28.3%ladder16.1%ladder8.4%ladder22.4%lineup0.0%form Internal -- avg 1 books
15
CWS vs HOUneutral
P 54.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 3.5
54.2%Over prob · Palantir 50.0%no-vig +4.16% 3.98count36.7%ladder22.8%ladder13.1%ladder20.3%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -113 avg 1 books
16
CHC vs MILneutral
P 50.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 4.5
2 of 4
50.8%Over prob · Palantir 47.6%no-vig +0.81% 4.82count50.8%ladder35.5%ladder23.2%ladder22.1%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -102 avg 1 books
17
MIN vs DETneutral
P 52.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 4.5
2 of 4
52.1%Over prob · Palantir 50.4%no-vig +2.07% 4.90count52.1%ladder36.8%ladder24.2%ladder24.1%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
18
SD vs CINhitter-friendly
P 51.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Over 4.5
2 of 4
51.1%Over prob · Palantir 50.4%no-vig +1.12% 4.84count51.1%ladder35.8%ladder23.4%ladder23.9%lineup0.0%form FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
19
COL vs BALhitter-friendly
P 46.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Under 3.5
1 of 3
53.8%Under prob · Palantir 53.7%no-vig +3.77% 3.55count29.1%ladder16.7%ladder8.8%ladder23.0%lineup0.0%form FanDuel 104 avg 1 books