Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-07-27

David Peterson

CHC · SP · throws L · age 31
Projected starter Opp K 21.6% Neutral
MatchupCHC vs STLopponent
Sample711.667career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts3.5
P 66.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.3% Market -- Gap +22.3pp
FanDuel 114 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs--
Pitcher Outs · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.58
11
ERA5.97
12
BB%9.2%
43
K%17.9%
18 -19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.349
18
Barrel allowed6.0%
76 +23 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
16
Hard-hit allowed44.2%
16
Whiff%20.7%
30 -24 vs proj

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range17.0% to 26.1%
Opponent K21.6%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)