Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-27 Refreshed Oct 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-27

Janson Junk

MIA · SP
Projected starter Opp K 22.4% Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs ATLopponent
Sample--career MLB IP
PROPS 2 available BATTERS FACED 0.00 PERCENTILES 9 rows
Home Runs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Fangorn calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.039, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Home Runs · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.034, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.089, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts3.5
P 44.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.1% Market -- Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 102 tracking Open board
Pitcher Outs13.5
P 49.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.5% Market 52.8% Gap +0.1pp
FanDuel -112 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
42
ERA4.22
44
BB%6.6%
84
K%16.3%
13
xwOBA allowed0.317
45 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.4%
51
Fastball velo94.1
44
Hard-hit allowed38.7%
48
Whiff%13.1%
1

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range--
Opponent K22.4%
Expected BF0.00
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-10-15
Palantir 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d error rising
Fangorn 22410 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d error rising
Valinor 16722 props Brier 0.115 ECE 0.002 14d error rising
Palantir 2000 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1496 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 sample building
Palantir 10880 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.042 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 866 props Brier 0.169 ECE 0.039 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1106 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.052 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)