Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Pitcher detail · 2026-09-01

Spencer Arrighetti

TOR · SP · throws R · age 26
Projected starter Opp K -- Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CLEopponent
Sample275.667career MLB IP
PROPS 1 available BATTERS FACED 20.714 PERCENTILES 16 rows
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's pitcher props
Strikeouts--
Strikeouts · tracking

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher Outs14.5
P 50.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 50.2% Market 58.3% Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel -140 tracking Open board
Win Probability--
Win prob · no production board

No production board publishes this pitcher-market cell today.

Pitcher skill · percentile strip

Current season percentiles

100th = best in MLB
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.37
42
ERA4.73
32
BB%12.8%
14
K%22.5%
53
xwOBA allowed0.346
19
Barrel allowed8.2%
38
Fastball velo92.3
19
Hard-hit allowed31.1%
93
Whiff%23.5%
55
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Curveball Stuff+102
46
Fastball Stuff+105
68
Mithrandir Stuff+102
50
Changeup Stuff+94
Small sample
Cutter Stuff+112
Small sample
Sinker Stuff+105
Small sample
Slider Stuff+100
Small sample

Matchup context

cached artifacts
Projected range21.2% to 32.4%
Opponent K--
Expected BF20.714
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)