Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Salvador Perez

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 4 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs AZCorbin Burnes
Sample6999.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 20.3
Model 19.6% Market 17.2% Gap +1.8pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.1% Market 72.2% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.4% Market -- Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
89
Exit velocity89.0
64
Hard-hit%42.5%
69
xBA0.308
37
xSLG0.542
62
xwOBA0.310
57 -23 vs proj
BB%3.7%
7
Bat speed70.1
56
K%19.1%
72 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.1 · C
14
Catcher Throwing1.0 · C
73
Framing Runs-6.4 · C
5
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · C
5
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Range Runs-2.7 · C
7
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.8 · DH
7
Sprint Speed23.7 · DH
1
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.3%
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
80
Correct Decisions61.8%
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
17

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.372
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherCorbin Burnes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)