Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Marcus Semien

NYM · Hitter · bats R · age 36
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample6802.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.1
F 10.7
V 11.5
Model 17.0% Market 13.2% Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 630 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.8% Market 74.7% Gap +14.1pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.9% Market -- Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
50
Exit velocity86.6
36
Hard-hit%35.2%
34
xBA0.319
51
xSLG0.495
48
xwOBA0.306
52
BB%8.2%
47
Bat speed66.5
16
K%20.1%
65 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
12
Arm Strength85.3 · 2B
34
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · 2B
4
Range Runs-4.0 · 2B
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 2B
53
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
34
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4%
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
64
Correct Decisions68.6%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.366
RegressionNegative · -0.004
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)