Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Bryce Harper

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski
Sample6940.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.056, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.052, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 14.9
Model 22.3% Market 18.7% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 81.5% Market 82.6% Gap +17.3pp
BetMGM -475 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 31.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.6% Market -- Gap +4.6pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.9%
80
Exit velocity90.3
81
Hard-hit%45.0%
79
xBA0.373
93
xSLG0.672
92
xwOBA0.392
99
BB%16.2%
99
Bat speed72.4
83
K%21.1%
59
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · 1B
95
Arm Strength93.7 · 1B
92
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
7
Range Runs-5.8 · 1B
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.3 · 1B
5
SB Success Rate44.4% · 1B
2
Sprint Speed27.2 · 1B
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.3%
93
Correct Decisions67.8%
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.414
RegressionNegative · -0.003
Opposing pitcherHayden Wesneski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-12
Palantir 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 14193 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1758 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1254 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9476 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 766 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 993 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)