Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-05-21 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-21

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 36
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample2885.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 15.7
V 13.2
Model 17.5% Market 13.5% Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 615 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 56.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 56.7% Market 67.4% Gap -3.6pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
24 -31 vs proj
Exit velocity89.4
58
Hard-hit%37.4%
35 -23 vs proj
xBA0.307
32
xSLG0.429
23
xwOBA0.273
20 -33 vs proj
BB%8.4%
44 -23 vs proj
Bat speed68.1
31
K%26.5%
29 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
87
Arm Strength89.6 · LF
25
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs-0.2 · LF
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
68
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
44
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.7%
86
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.6%
37
Correct Decisions69.3%
66
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
78

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.073
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)