Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Christian Yelich

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 35
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs CHCDavid Peterson
Sample6501.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.2
Model 17.6% Market 15.5% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.1% Market 80.2% Gap +16.4pp
BetMGM -405 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 26.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.0% Market -- Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
70
Exit velocity88.2
53
Hard-hit%42.5%
70
xBA0.335
70
xSLG0.562
69
xwOBA0.315
63 -20 vs proj
BB%9.6%
64
Bat speed71.2
73
K%26.1%
33 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
66 Regression applied
Range Runs0.0 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.0 · DH
81
SB Success Rate100.0% · DH
94
Sprint Speed27.3 · DH
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.1%
32
Correct Decisions68.6%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.380
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherDavid Peterson
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)