Mithrandir Metrics
NYM 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Francisco Lindor

NYM · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupNYM vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample6426.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.5
F 12.5
V 13.0
Model 19.3% Market 18.9% Gap -0.3pp
DraftKings 410 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.7% Market 81.7% Gap +16.9pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.9% Market -- Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.0%
67
Exit velocity91.0
87
Hard-hit%47.5%
87
xBA0.311
42
xSLG0.561
69
xwOBA0.334
81
BB%9.7%
66
Bat speed70.7
68
K%19.5%
70
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · SS
99
Arm Strength85.2 · SS
32
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · SS
28
Range Runs-1.5 · SS
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · SS
20
Sprint Speed26.8 · SS
32
SB Success Rate33.3% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.1%
50
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
78
Correct Decisions65.3%
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
62

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.404
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)