Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Ketel Marte

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 33
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs KCMichael Wacha
Sample5025.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 11.9
Model 19.9% Market 20.5% Gap -1.4pp
DraftKings 370 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 82.4% Market 83.5% Gap +17.7pp
BetMGM -505 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 31.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.4% Market -- Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.6%
84
Exit velocity89.9
76
Hard-hit%42.0%
68 -17 vs proj
xBA0.330
63
xSLG0.553
66
xwOBA0.347
90
BB%8.1%
46 -24 vs proj
Bat speed73.4
92
K%14.6%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
66
Arm Strength91.5 · 2B
81
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 2B
79
Range Runs1.9 · 2B
71
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 2B
50
Bolts1.0 · 2B
11
Sprint Speed26.6 · 2B
28
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0%
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.8%
43
Correct Decisions65.1%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.310 to 0.402
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherMichael Wacha
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)