Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Alex Bregman

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski
Sample5152.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.8
F 12.5
V 9.4
Model 18.2% Market 14.6% Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.5% Market 78.5% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -365 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 21.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.2% Market -- Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
47
Exit velocity88.3
55
Hard-hit%38.4%
50
xBA0.300
28
xSLG0.458
34
xwOBA0.320
69
BB%10.6%
75 +17 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
32
K%15.2%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.7 · 3B
14
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 3B
93
Range Runs5.6 · 3B
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · 3B
41
Sprint Speed26.2 · 3B
22
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.4%
88
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8%
34
Correct Decisions68.8%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.370
RegressionNegative · -0.054
Opposing pitcherJacob Misiorowski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)