Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Matt Olson

ATL · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TBFreddy Peralta
Sample5054.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 14.6
Model 20.8% Market 21.2% Gap -1.2pp
DraftKings 355 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.3% Market 81.3% Gap +16.7pp
BetMGM -435 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 23.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.7% Market -- Gap +3.2pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
98
Exit velocity92.6
96
Hard-hit%50.6%
94
xBA0.345
77
xSLG0.710
95
xwOBA0.353
92
BB%9.3%
61 -25 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
89
K%25.7%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 1B
93
Range Runs5.3 · 1B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · 1B
42
Sprint Speed25.4 · 1B
9
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6%
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8%
54
Correct Decisions68.2%
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
67

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.407
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)