Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Pete Alonso

BAL · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs CLETanner Bibee
Sample4304.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 12.0
V 16.0
Model 18.7% Market 23.0% Gap -4.3pp
BetMGM 335 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.4% Market 77.3% Gap +15.1pp
BetMGM -340 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 21.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 21.8% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
94
Exit velocity94.2
98
Hard-hit%57.5%
99
xBA0.392
97
xSLG0.747
98
xwOBA0.392
99
BB%11.4%
82 +23 vs proj
Bat speed72.9
89
K%24.0%
44
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 1B
72
Range Runs1.1 · 1B
67
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.6 · 1B
4
Sprint Speed25.1 · 1B
6
SB Success Rate75.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7%
71
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
69
Correct Decisions69.2%
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
79

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.424
RegressionPositive · 0.008
Opposing pitcherTanner Bibee
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)