Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-08-20 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-20

Rafael Devers

SF · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 2 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSF vs CLEGavin Williams
Sample4885.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 12.2
V 14.0
Model 18.1% Market 20.8% Gap -2.7pp
BetMGM 380 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.7% Market 77.8% Gap +14.2pp
BetMGM -350 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.4% Market -- Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
81
Exit velocity92.4
95
Hard-hit%51.2%
95
xBA0.327
59
xSLG0.625
84
xwOBA0.324
72
BB%9.8%
66
Bat speed70.5
65
K%26.1%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
48
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
27
Range Runs-1.0 · 1B
43
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · 1B
32
Sprint Speed26.1 · 1B
19
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.4%
45
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.1%
52
Correct Decisions66.7%
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.383 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.398
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherGavin Williams
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)