Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-08-20 · saved artifact ROWS 68 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Cody BellingerNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 68.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	31.2%Under prob · Palantir	15.7%no-vig	-1.00%	2.836count	0.6922prob	1.4909proj	1.103context	BetMGM -535 avg 1 books
02	Noelvi MarteCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 20.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	79.8%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.63%	1.6151count	0.4635prob	0.8993proj	1.009context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
03	Yandy DíazTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 68.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	31.7%Under prob · Palantir	16.4%no-vig	-0.98%	2.5189count	0.6509prob	1.4392proj	0.983context	BetMGM -510 avg 1 books
04	Aaron JudgeNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 68.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	31.5%Under prob · Palantir	16.3%no-vig	-0.94%	3.4812count	0.7627prob	1.4689proj	1.103context	BetMGM -515 avg 1 books
05	Christian YelichMIL	MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 67.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	32.9%Under prob · Palantir	17.7%no-vig	-1.07%	2.6265count	0.6514prob	1.4088proj	1.057context	BetMGM -465 avg 1 books
06	Brice TurangMIL	MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 66.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	33.4%Under prob · Palantir	18.3%no-vig	-1.08%	2.2656count	0.6034prob	1.389proj	1.057context	BetMGM -445 avg 1 books
07	José RamírezCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 66.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	33.5%Under prob · Palantir	18.5%no-vig	-1.01%	2.7257count	0.6822prob	1.371proj	0.942context	BetMGM -440 avg 1 books
08	Luis ArraezSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 66.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	33.5%Under prob · Palantir	18.7%no-vig	-0.92%	1.8956count	0.534prob	1.3714proj	0.971context	BetMGM -435 avg 1 books
09	William ContrerasMIL	MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 65.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	34.2%Under prob · Palantir	19.4%no-vig	-1.06%	2.3992count	0.6313prob	1.3372proj	1.057context	BetMGM -415 avg 1 books
10	Elly De La CruzCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 65.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	34.2%Under prob · Palantir	19.4%no-vig	-1.03%	2.6204count	0.6703prob	1.3498proj	1.009context	BetMGM -415 avg 1 books
11	Chandler SimpsonTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 65.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	35.0%Under prob · Palantir	20.4%no-vig	-0.98%	1.7721count	0.5132prob	1.2961proj	0.983context	BetMGM -390 avg 1 books
12	Alec BurlesonSTL	STL vs CINBrady Singer	P 64.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	35.5%Under prob · Palantir	21.1%no-vig	-1.05%	2.219count	0.594prob	1.2573proj	0.962context	BetMGM -375 avg 1 books
13	Jonathan ArandaTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 63.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	36.1%Under prob · Palantir	21.7%no-vig	-1.09%	2.2236count	0.5946prob	1.2318proj	0.983context	BetMGM -360 avg 1 books
14	Rafael DeversSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 63.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	36.5%Under prob · Palantir	22.2%no-vig	-1.04%	2.5964count	0.6584prob	1.2457proj	0.971context	BetMGM -350 avg 1 books
15	Tj FriedlCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 63.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	36.5%Under prob · Palantir	22.2%no-vig	-1.04%	2.1886count	0.5792prob	1.2451proj	1.009context	BetMGM -350 avg 1 books
16	Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 63.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	36.6%Under prob · Palantir	22.5%no-vig	-1.00%	2.5213count	0.6262prob	1.2349proj	1.103context	BetMGM -345 avg 1 books
17	Daylen LileWSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 62.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	37.1%Under prob · Palantir	23.0%no-vig	-1.13%	2.1445count	0.5985prob	1.1953proj	0.949context	BetMGM -335 avg 1 books
18	Cj AbramsWSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 62.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	37.1%Under prob · Palantir	23.0%no-vig	-1.12%	2.2806count	0.6117prob	1.2225proj	0.949context	BetMGM -335 avg 1 books
19	Luis García Jr.WSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 62.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	37.6%Under prob · Palantir	23.5%no-vig	-1.13%	2.0586count	0.5604prob	1.1806proj	0.949context	BetMGM -325 avg 1 books
20	James WoodWSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 62.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	37.7%Under prob · Palantir	23.8%no-vig	-1.01%	2.3407count	0.6172prob	1.1906proj	0.949context	BetMGM -320 avg 1 books
21	Eugenio SuárezCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 61.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	38.6%Under prob · Palantir	25.0%no-vig	-0.98%	2.5401count	0.6504prob	1.156proj	1.009context	BetMGM -300 avg 1 books
22	Junior CamineroTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 61.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	38.6%Under prob · Palantir	25.0%no-vig	-0.94%	2.4531count	0.6296prob	1.1414proj	0.983context	BetMGM -300 avg 1 books
23	Steven KwanCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 60.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	39.1%Under prob · Palantir	25.6%no-vig	-0.98%	1.6916count	0.4655prob	1.143proj	0.942context	BetMGM -290 avg 1 books
24	Spencer SteerCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 60.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	39.9%Under prob · Palantir	26.7%no-vig	-1.07%	2.1168count	0.5794prob	1.0971proj	1.009context	BetMGM -275 avg 1 books
25	Iván HerreraSTL	STL vs CINBrady Singer	P 59.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	40.2%Under prob · Palantir	27.0%no-vig	-1.00%	1.8563count	0.5057prob	1.0821proj	0.962context	BetMGM -270 avg 1 books
26	Andrew BenintendiCWS	CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 59.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	40.8%Under prob · Palantir	27.8%no-vig	-1.14%	1.9237count	0.5272prob	1.066proj	0.921context	BetMGM -260 avg 1 books
27	Paul GoldschmidtNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 59.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	40.4%Under prob · Palantir	27.4%no-vig	-0.96%	1.9247count	0.536prob	1.0697proj	1.103context	BetMGM -265 avg 1 books
28	Luis RengifoMIL	MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 59.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	40.6%Under prob · Palantir	27.8%no-vig	-0.89%	1.7683count	0.4976prob	1.059proj	1.057context	BetMGM -260 avg 1 books
29	Colson MontgomeryCWS	CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 59.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	41.0%Under prob · Palantir	28.2%no-vig	-0.98%	2.4116count	0.6298prob	1.0586proj	0.921context	BetMGM -255 avg 1 books
30	Sal FrelickMIL	MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 57.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	42.1%Under prob · Palantir	29.4%no-vig	-1.16%	1.5357count	0.4343prob	1.0174proj	1.057context	BetMGM -240 avg 1 books
31	Matt ChapmanSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 57.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	42.1%Under prob · Palantir	29.4%no-vig	-1.15%	2.0427count	0.5636prob	1.0273proj	0.971context	BetMGM -240 avg 1 books
32	Ben RiceNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 57.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	42.1%Under prob · Palantir	29.4%no-vig	-1.10%	2.2016count	0.5876prob	1.0241proj	1.103context	BetMGM -240 avg 1 books
33	Heliot RamosSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 58.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	41.6%Under prob · Palantir	29.0%no-vig	-0.94%	1.8491count	0.5059prob	1.0368proj	0.971context	BetMGM -245 avg 1 books
34	Giancarlo StantonNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 58.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	41.5%Under prob · Palantir	29.0%no-vig	-0.80%	2.4188count	0.6199prob	1.0428proj	1.103context	BetMGM -245 avg 1 books
35	Jung Hoo LeeSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 57.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	42.3%Under prob · Palantir	29.9%no-vig	-0.97%	1.6556count	0.4834prob	1.0077proj	0.971context	BetMGM -235 avg 1 books
36	Tyler StephensonCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 57.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	42.7%Under prob · Palantir	30.3%no-vig	-1.10%	1.8991count	0.5287prob	0.9962proj	1.009context	BetMGM -230 avg 1 books
37	Cedric MullinsTB	TB vs TORShane Bieber	P 56.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	43.1%Under prob · Palantir	30.8%no-vig	-1.15%	1.9602count	0.5434prob	0.991proj	0.983context	BetMGM -225 avg 1 books
38	Jasson DomínguezNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 57.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	42.6%Under prob · Palantir	30.3%no-vig	-0.93%	1.7814count	0.4906prob	0.9974proj	1.103context	BetMGM -230 avg 1 books
39	Willy AdamesSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 57.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	43.0%Under prob · Palantir	30.8%no-vig	-0.97%	2.0104count	0.5452prob	0.9977proj	0.971context	BetMGM -225 avg 1 books
40	Chase MeidrothCWS	CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 55.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	44.3%Under prob · Palantir	32.3%no-vig	-1.25%	1.3402count	0.3653prob	0.9564proj	0.921context	BetMGM -210 avg 1 books
41	Edgar QueroCWS	CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 56.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	43.3%Under prob · Palantir	31.2%no-vig	-0.85%	1.4934count	0.4248prob	0.9734proj	0.921context	BetMGM -220 avg 1 books
42	Keibert RuizWSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 56.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	43.7%Under prob · Palantir	31.7%no-vig	-0.91%	1.5838count	0.4389prob	0.9725proj	0.949context	BetMGM -215 avg 1 books
43	Matt McLainCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 55.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	44.6%Under prob · Palantir	32.8%no-vig	-1.12%	1.7074count	0.4845prob	0.9301proj	1.009context	BetMGM -205 avg 1 books
44	Jj BledayCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 55.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	44.6%Under prob · Palantir	32.8%no-vig	-1.11%	1.9203count	0.5438prob	0.9427proj	1.009context	BetMGM -205 avg 1 books
45	Austin HaysCWS	CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 56.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	44.0%Under prob · Palantir	32.3%no-vig	-0.86%	1.6837count	0.485prob	0.9435proj	0.921context	BetMGM -210 avg 1 books
46	José TenaWSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 56.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	44.0%Under prob · Palantir	32.3%no-vig	-0.83%	1.5269count	0.4422prob	0.9528proj	0.949context	BetMGM -210 avg 1 books
47	Kyle ManzardoCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 55.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	44.4%Under prob · Palantir	32.8%no-vig	-0.80%	1.9518count	0.5374prob	0.9506proj	0.942context	BetMGM -205 avg 1 books
48	Robert Hassell IIIWSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 54.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	46.0%Under prob · Palantir	34.5%no-vig	-1.20%	1.4972count	0.4318prob	0.8862proj	0.949context	BetMGM -190 avg 1 books
49	Will BensonCIN	CIN vs STLMichael McGreevy	P 54.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	45.8%Under prob · Palantir	34.5%no-vig	-0.97%	1.8902count	0.5364prob	0.9021proj	1.009context	BetMGM -190 avg 1 books
50	Masyn WinnSTL	STL vs CINBrady Singer	P 53.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	46.3%Under prob · Palantir	35.1%no-vig	-1.05%	1.4248count	0.4069prob	0.8775proj	0.962context	BetMGM -185 avg 1 books
51	Trent GrishamNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 53.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	46.9%Under prob · Palantir	35.7%no-vig	-1.18%	1.8613count	0.4989prob	0.8772proj	1.103context	BetMGM -180 avg 1 books
52	Lenyn SosaCWS	CWS vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 52.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	47.5%Under prob · Palantir	36.4%no-vig	-1.31%	1.432count	0.3934prob	0.8357proj	0.921context	BetMGM -175 avg 1 books
53	Jordan WalkerSTL	STL vs CINBrady Singer	P 51.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	48.6%Under prob · Palantir	37.7%no-vig	-1.34%	1.399count	0.4035prob	0.8127proj	0.962context	BetMGM -165 avg 1 books
54	Nolan JonesCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 51.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	48.6%Under prob · Palantir	37.7%no-vig	-1.33%	1.4106count	0.4113prob	0.816proj	0.942context	BetMGM -165 avg 1 books
55	Victor Scott IISTL	STL vs CINBrady Singer	P 52.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	47.6%Under prob · Palantir	37.0%no-vig	-0.72%	1.3525count	0.3852prob	0.864proj	0.962context	BetMGM -170 avg 1 books
56	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 51.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	48.8%Under prob · Palantir	38.5%no-vig	-0.96%	1.6444count	0.4633prob	0.8168proj	1.057context	BetMGM -160 avg 1 books
57	Bo NaylorCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 51.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 3	48.8%Under prob · Palantir	38.5%no-vig	-0.96%	1.68count	0.4875prob	0.8259proj	0.942context	BetMGM -160 avg 1 books
58	Tyler FitzgeraldSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 51.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	48.6%Under prob · Palantir	38.5%no-vig	-0.66%	1.4624count	0.4284prob	0.806proj	0.971context	BetMGM -160 avg 1 books
59	Angel MartínezCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 49.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	50.8%Under prob · Palantir	40.8%no-vig	-1.10%	1.277count	0.3638prob	0.7678proj	0.942context	BetMGM -145 avg 1 books
60	Ramón UríasSTL	STL vs CINBrady Singer	P 50.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	49.8%Under prob · Palantir	40.0%no-vig	-0.71%	1.3384count	0.3905prob	0.7742proj	0.962context	BetMGM -150 avg 1 books
61	José CaballeroNYY	NYY vs BALKyle Bradish	P 48.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	51.5%Under prob · Palantir	41.7%no-vig	-1.19%	1.2167count	0.3522prob	0.7437proj	1.103context	BetMGM -140 avg 1 books
62	Dylan CrewsWSH	WSH vs TEXJacob deGrom	P 47.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	52.3%Under prob · Palantir	42.6%no-vig	-1.40%	1.2996count	0.3757prob	0.7233proj	0.949context	BetMGM -135 avg 1 books
63	Daniel SchneemannCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 49.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	50.4%Under prob · Palantir	40.8%no-vig	-0.63%	1.4415count	0.4193prob	0.7808proj	0.942context	BetMGM -145 avg 1 books
64	Pedro PagésSTL	STL vs CINBrady Singer	P 49.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	50.4%Under prob · Palantir	40.8%no-vig	-0.63%	1.3273count	0.3778prob	0.7627proj	0.962context	BetMGM -145 avg 1 books
65	Gabriel AriasCLE	CLE vs SFLanden Roupp	P 46.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	53.8%Under prob · Palantir	44.4%no-vig	-1.37%	1.2295count	0.3687prob	0.6865proj	0.942context	BetMGM -125 avg 1 books
66	Harrison BaderSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 47.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	52.7%Under prob · Palantir	43.5%no-vig	-0.93%	1.2218count	0.3547prob	0.704proj	0.971context	BetMGM -130 avg 1 books
67	Casey SchmittSF	SF vs CLEGavin Williams	P 45.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	54.1%Under prob · Palantir	45.5%no-vig	-0.74%	1.2392count	0.3643prob	0.6783proj	0.971context	BetMGM -120 avg 1 books
68	Jackson ChourioMIL	MIL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 37.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 0.5 1 of 2	62.4%Under prob · Palantir	55.6%no-vig	-0.95%	0.9326count	0.3012prob	0.4883proj	1.057context	BetMGM 125 avg 1 books