Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-06-17 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-17

Matt Chapman

SF · Hitter
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSF vs ATLGrant Holmes
Sample4428.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.1
F 26.0
V 26.0
Model 23.2% Market 16.2% Gap +6.4pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.2% Market 70.0% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.6% Market -- Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 270 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
50 -28 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
50
Hard-hit%38.3%
44 -41 vs proj
xBA0.293
22
xSLG0.450
29
xwOBA0.299
39 -31 vs proj
BB%10.6%
71
Bat speed73.9
94
K%19.9%
63 +28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.2 · 3B
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
70
Range Runs0.9 · 3B
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 3B
29
Sprint Speed28.0 · 3B
68
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
51
Correct Decisions70.2%
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.079
Opposing pitcherGrant Holmes
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)