Mithrandir Metrics

TOTAL BASES 2026-06-17 · saved artifact ROWS 65 FILTERS lineup default on when confirmed lineups exist LINES 0.5 · 2.5

Lane Health 2026-09-02

Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising

Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)

Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)

Model Lane

Total Bases

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Palantir production Fangorn missing Valinor missing

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.

Total Bases board

#	Player	Matchup	Three lanes	Line	Model	Market	Gap	TB proj	2+ TB	Hits	TB mult	Best line
01	Bobby Witt Jr.KC	KC vs WSHZack Littell	P 70.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	70.5%Over prob · Palantir	79.8%no-vig	-0.37%	2.7815count	0.7054prob	1.4418proj	0.948context	FanDuel -170 avg 1 books
02	Isaac CollinsKC	KC vs WSHZack Littell	P 23.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.7%Under prob · Palantir	74.7%no-vig	+4.86%	1.6055count	0.4726prob	0.9186proj	0.948context	FanDuel 430 avg 1 books
03	Trea TurnerPHI	PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 69.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	69.6%Over prob · Palantir	82.0%no-vig	-0.38%	2.789count	0.6962prob	1.5613proj	1.085context	FanDuel 105 avg 1 books
04	Travis D'ArnaudLAA	LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	76.3%Under prob · Palantir	74.4%no-vig	+4.47%	1.6178count	0.468prob	0.8274proj	0.936context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
05	Christian YelichMIL	MIL vs CLEGavin Williams	P 65.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	65.3%Over prob · Palantir	78.4%no-vig	-0.42%	2.6265count	0.6532prob	1.4088proj	1.057context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
06	Jake BauersMIL	MIL vs CLEGavin Williams	P 24.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.6%Under prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	+3.73%	1.6444count	0.4657prob	0.8168proj	1.057context	FanDuel 420 avg 1 books
07	Bo BichetteNYM	NYM vs CINNick Lodolo	P 66.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	66.7%Over prob · Palantir	81.0%no-vig	-0.38%	2.5865count	0.6672prob	1.4955proj	1.043context	FanDuel -125 avg 1 books
08	Oneil CruzPIT	PIT vs ATHAaron Civale	P 24.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Under 2.5 3 of 3	75.2%Under prob · Palantir	73.5%no-vig	+3.41%	1.684count	0.4947prob	0.8456proj	0.931context	DraftKings 285 avg 1 books
09	Drake BaldwinATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 48.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.1%Over prob · Palantir	80.3%no-vig	-0.69%	2.8612count	0.687prob	1.4947proj	1.06context	FanDuel 240 avg 1 books
10	Alec BohmPHI	PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 63.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	63.2%Over prob · Palantir	78.1%no-vig	-0.39%	2.3667count	0.6317prob	1.3671proj	1.085context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
11	Matt OlsonATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 68.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	68.7%Over prob · Palantir	77.1%no-vig	-0.48%	2.8687count	0.6868prob	1.3631proj	1.06context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
12	Jarren DuranBOS	BOS vs TORMax Scherzer	P 71.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	71.7%Over prob · Palantir	80.0%no-vig	-0.35%	2.8151count	0.7167prob	1.4728proj	1.089context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
13	Jose AltuveHOU	HOU vs DETCasey Mize	P 64.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.1%Over prob · Palantir	78.6%no-vig	-0.32%	2.5001count	0.6409prob	1.3915proj	1.037context	FanDuel 150 avg 1 books
14	Luis ArraezSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 55.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	55.1%Over prob · Palantir	78.6%no-vig	-0.47%	1.9619count	0.5512prob	1.411proj	0.958context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
15	Dominic SmithATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 59.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	59.8%Over prob · Palantir	75.7%no-vig	-0.35%	2.2188count	0.5981prob	1.2998proj	1.06context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
16	Yordan AlvarezHOU	HOU vs DETCasey Mize	P 68.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	68.3%Over prob · Palantir	78.4%no-vig	-0.41%	2.8289count	0.6835prob	1.3845proj	1.037context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
17	Bryce HarperPHI	PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 48.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	48.0%Over prob · Palantir	78.9%no-vig	-0.75%	2.8915count	0.6966prob	1.4261proj	1.085context	FanDuel 250 avg 1 books
18	Brice TurangMIL	MIL vs CLEGavin Williams	P 58.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	58.4%Over prob · Palantir	76.8%no-vig	-0.50%	2.1798count	0.584prob	1.3507proj	1.057context	FanDuel 145 avg 1 books
19	Jung Hoo LeeSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 57.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.0%Over prob · Palantir	73.7%no-vig	-0.41%	2.0165count	0.5699prob	1.2162proj	0.958context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
20	William ContrerasMIL	MIL vs CLEGavin Williams	P 61.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.4%Over prob · Palantir	75.9%no-vig	-0.39%	2.3189count	0.6141prob	1.3046proj	1.057context	FanDuel 130 avg 1 books
21	Juan SotoNYM	NYM vs CINNick Lodolo	P 67.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	67.4%Over prob · Palantir	75.3%no-vig	-0.33%	2.8114count	0.6741prob	1.2908proj	1.043context	FanDuel -115 avg 1 books
22	Marcus SemienNYM	NYM vs CINNick Lodolo	P 59.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	59.4%Over prob · Palantir	73.4%no-vig	-0.51%	2.2655count	0.5938prob	1.2176proj	1.043context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
23	Ozzie AlbiesATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 63.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	63.3%Over prob · Palantir	76.8%no-vig	-0.40%	2.4628count	0.6326prob	1.3404proj	1.06context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
24	Julio RodríguezSEA	SEA vs BALKyle Bradish	P 63.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	63.5%Over prob · Palantir	77.1%no-vig	-0.82%	2.4987count	0.6347prob	1.3442proj	1.012context	FanDuel -180 avg 1 books
25	Brandon MarshPHI	PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 57.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.8%Over prob · Palantir	72.2%no-vig	-0.56%	2.1268count	0.5781prob	1.1619proj	1.085context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
26	Austin RileyATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 64.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	64.1%Over prob · Palantir	75.7%no-vig	-0.52%	2.4908count	0.6412prob	1.2708proj	1.06context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
27	Eli WhiteATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 61.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.8%Over prob · Palantir	75.0%no-vig	-0.31%	2.4017count	0.6175prob	1.2837proj	1.06context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
28	Salvador PerezKC	KC vs WSHZack Littell	P 60.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	60.0%Over prob · Palantir	72.6%no-vig	-0.53%	2.2899count	0.5999prob	1.1737proj	0.948context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
29	Jake MangumPIT	PIT vs ATHAaron Civale	P 24.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.4%Over prob · Palantir	72.5%no-vig	+3.77%	1.6689count	0.4773prob	1.1695proj	0.931context	DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
30	Christian WalkerHOU	HOU vs DETCasey Mize	P 62.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	62.7%Over prob · Palantir	72.6%no-vig	-0.55%	2.4219count	0.6269prob	1.1797proj	1.037context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
31	Rafael DeversSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 41.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	41.8%Over prob · Palantir	74.0%no-vig	-0.94%	2.5734count	0.6573prob	1.2265proj	0.958context	FanDuel 230 avg 1 books
32	Zach NetoLAA	LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 62.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	62.2%Over prob · Palantir	72.9%no-vig	-0.31%	2.3644count	0.6219prob	1.1934proj	0.936context	FanDuel 100 avg 1 books
33	Kyle SchwarberPHI	PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 65.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	65.0%Over prob · Palantir	70.9%no-vig	-0.42%	2.8182count	0.6498prob	1.1526proj	1.085context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
34	Masataka YoshidaBOS	BOS vs TORMax Scherzer	P 54.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	54.5%Over prob · Palantir	72.5%no-vig	-0.43%	1.9723count	0.5453prob	1.1553proj	1.089context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
35	Willson ContrerasBOS	BOS vs TORMax Scherzer	P 61.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	61.4%Over prob · Palantir	73.6%no-vig	-0.49%	2.3686count	0.6135prob	1.2098proj	1.089context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books
36	Yainer DiazHOU	HOU vs DETCasey Mize	P 56.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	56.4%Over prob · Palantir	72.5%no-vig	-0.45%	2.0943count	0.5635prob	1.1536proj	1.037context	FanDuel 160 avg 1 books
37	Matt ChapmanSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 60.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	60.2%Over prob · Palantir	70.0%no-vig	-0.61%	2.2421count	0.6023prob	1.1163proj	0.958context	FanDuel 135 avg 1 books
38	Mike TroutLAA	LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 57.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.2%Over prob · Palantir	66.9%no-vig	-0.51%	2.1521count	0.5723prob	1.0198proj	0.936context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
39	Wilyer AbreuBOS	BOS vs TORMax Scherzer	P 59.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	59.8%Over prob · Palantir	71.7%no-vig	-0.43%	2.3175count	0.5975prob	1.1407proj	1.089context	FanDuel -120 avg 1 books
40	Maikel GarciaKC	KC vs WSHZack Littell	P 23.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.7%Over prob · Palantir	66.4%no-vig	+4.48%	1.6226count	0.4766prob	0.9849proj	0.948context	DraftKings 305 avg 1 books
41	Mark VientosNYM	NYM vs CINNick Lodolo	P 58.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	58.6%Over prob · Palantir	70.3%no-vig	-0.38%	2.2431count	0.5861prob	1.1038proj	1.043context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
42	Isaac ParedesHOU	HOU vs DETCasey Mize	P 56.7 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	56.7%Over prob · Palantir	69.0%no-vig	-0.58%	2.1292count	0.5671prob	1.0703proj	1.037context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
43	Jake MeyersHOU	HOU vs DETCasey Mize	P 43.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	43.5%Over prob · Palantir	62.3%no-vig	-0.34%	1.4841count	0.4345prob	0.8772proj	1.037context	FanDuel 195 avg 1 books
44	Cal RaleighSEA	SEA vs BALKyle Bradish	P 43.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	43.5%Over prob · Palantir	71.3%no-vig	-0.90%	2.7329count	0.6643prob	1.1478proj	1.012context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
45	Bryson StottPHI	PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 28.4 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	28.4%Over prob · Palantir	70.3%no-vig	-1.34%	1.8394count	0.5104prob	1.0996proj	1.085context	FanDuel 230 avg 1 books
46	Mike YastrzemskiATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 57.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	57.6%Over prob · Palantir	68.4%no-vig	-0.40%	2.1289count	0.5759prob	1.0547proj	1.06context	FanDuel 180 avg 1 books
47	Ha-Seong KimATL	ATL vs SFAdrian Houser	P 50.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	50.9%Over prob · Palantir	69.3%no-vig	-1.44%	1.873count	0.5094prob	1.078proj	1.06context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
48	Edgar QueroCWS	CWS vs NYYCarlos Rodón	P 42.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	42.9%Over prob · Palantir	66.4%no-vig	-0.72%	1.5154count	0.4294prob	0.9928proj	0.916context	FanDuel 200 avg 1 books
49	Jo AdellLAA	LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 58.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	58.0%Over prob · Palantir	65.6%no-vig	-0.46%	2.1684count	0.5799prob	0.984proj	0.936context	FanDuel -105 avg 1 books
50	J.t. RealmutoPHI	PHI vs MIASandy Alcantara	P 54.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	54.0%Over prob · Palantir	69.9%no-vig	-0.57%	1.9536count	0.5398prob	1.081proj	1.085context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
51	Chase MeidrothCWS	CWS vs NYYCarlos Rodón	P 40.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	40.1%Over prob · Palantir	67.3%no-vig	-0.32%	1.4602count	0.401prob	1.0333proj	0.916context	FanDuel 155 avg 1 books
52	Colson MontgomeryCWS	CWS vs NYYCarlos Rodón	P 54.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	54.1%Over prob · Palantir	61.7%no-vig	-0.54%	1.9639count	0.5414prob	0.8812proj	0.916context	FanDuel 140 avg 1 books
53	Joey LoperfidoHOU	HOU vs DETCasey Mize	P 47.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	47.1%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	-0.58%	1.6751count	0.4711prob	0.9563proj	1.037context	FanDuel 195 avg 1 books
54	Lane ThomasKC	KC vs WSHZack Littell	P 49.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.6%Over prob · Palantir	63.8%no-vig	-0.75%	1.7564count	0.4963prob	0.9323proj	0.948context	FanDuel 120 avg 1 books
55	Willy AdamesSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 32.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	32.3%Over prob · Palantir	66.8%no-vig	-0.81%	2.0555count	0.5571prob	1.0107proj	0.958context	FanDuel 270 avg 1 books
56	Leody TaverasBAL	BAL vs SEAGeorge Kirby	P 24.6 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.6%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	+3.56%	1.6655count	0.4816prob	0.9538proj	1.027context	DraftKings 290 avg 1 books
57	Ezequiel TovarCOL	COL vs CHCJavier Assad	P 51.1 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	51.1%Over prob · Palantir	67.9%no-vig	-1.30%	1.8318count	0.5108prob	1.0369proj	0.907context	FanDuel -110 avg 1 books
58	Francisco AlvarezNYM	NYM vs CINNick Lodolo	P 52.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	52.0%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	-0.67%	1.9359count	0.5205prob	0.9596proj	1.043context	FanDuel 125 avg 1 books
59	Caleb DurbinBOS	BOS vs TORMax Scherzer	P 23.8 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.8%Over prob · Palantir	64.9%no-vig	+4.42%	1.625count	0.4646prob	0.9396proj	1.089context	FanDuel 650 avg 1 books
60	Lenyn SosaCWS	CWS vs NYYCarlos Rodón	P 23.9 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	23.9%Over prob · Palantir	64.5%no-vig	+4.28%	1.6272count	0.4431prob	0.9395proj	0.916context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
61	Brenton DoyleCOL	COL vs CHCJavier Assad	P 24.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.3%Over prob · Palantir	63.0%no-vig	+3.87%	1.642count	0.4623prob	0.9164proj	0.907context	DraftKings 295 avg 1 books
62	Casey SchmittSF	SF vs ATLGrant Holmes	P 49.2 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	49.2%Over prob · Palantir	65.1%no-vig	-0.78%	1.7704count	0.4921prob	0.9661proj	0.958context	FanDuel 115 avg 1 books
63	Jonathan IndiaKC	KC vs WSHZack Littell	P 24.0 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	24.0%Over prob · Palantir	64.3%no-vig	+4.14%	1.6305count	0.4639prob	0.9457proj	0.948context	DraftKings 300 avg 1 books
64	Logan O'HoppeLAA	LAA vs AZEduardo Rodriguez	P 29.5 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 3	29.5%Over prob · Palantir	65.6%no-vig	-1.37%	1.8995count	0.5101prob	0.9724proj	0.936context	FanDuel 380 avg 1 books
65	Jackson ChourioMIL	MIL vs CLEGavin Williams	P 29.3 F -- in progress V -- in progress INSUFFICIENT LANES	Over 0.5 1 of 2	29.3%Over prob · Palantir	42.0%no-vig	-0.63%	0.911count	0.2929prob	0.48proj	1.057context	FanDuel 110 avg 1 books