Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-07-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-23

Cedric Mullins

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs TORShane Bieber
Sample3166.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 12.2
V 12.9
Model 18.5% Market 13.7% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 605 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 29.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.5% Market 30.3% Gap +1.1pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 15.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.1% Market -- Gap +10.6pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
21
Exit velocity84.8
16
Hard-hit%30.7%
16 -19 vs proj
xBA0.248
4
xSLG0.413
17
xwOBA0.262
12 -18 vs proj
BB%9.3%
60
Bat speed67.1
20
K%20.8%
60
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · CF
62
Arm Strength89.8 · CF
20
Outs Above Avg6.0 · CF
97
Range Runs6.2 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · CF
29
Bolts3.0 · CF
42
SB Success Rate69.2% · CF
24
Sprint Speed27.8 · CF
61
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
85
Correct Decisions68.8%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.288 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherShane Bieber
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)