Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Cedric Mullins

TB · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver
Sample3271.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 11.1
Model 18.0% Market 13.7% Gap +3.8pp
DraftKings 605 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.1% Market 69.2% Gap +12.4pp
BetMGM -225 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.2% Market -- Gap +5.8pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
25
Exit velocity84.9
18
Hard-hit%31.7%
22 -18 vs proj
xBA0.244
3
xSLG0.402
15
xwOBA0.267
18 -16 vs proj
BB%9.7%
65
Bat speed67.4
25
K%19.0%
72 +19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.6 · CF
38
Arm Strength93.3 · CF
49
Outs Above Avg11.0 · CF
99
Range Runs9.6 · CF
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · CF
18
Bolts4.0 · CF
43
SB Success Rate62.5% · CF
15
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
62
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.6%
90
Correct Decisions68.7%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.339
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherAj Smith-Shawver
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)