Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Austin Riley

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TBFreddy Peralta
Sample3651.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.056, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.052, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 14.4
Model 18.1% Market 16.2% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.8% Market 78.7% Gap +15.7pp
BetMGM -370 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 20.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.2% Market -- Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 420 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85
Exit velocity91.4
91
Hard-hit%45.2%
81
xBA0.330
63
xSLG0.612
82
xwOBA0.300
47 -41 vs proj
BB%7.5%
38
Bat speed74.0
94
K%30.9%
13 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
27
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
51
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-0.3 · 3B
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · 3B
49
SB Success Rate85.7% · 3B
67
Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B
62
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.8%
36
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
51
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
38

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherFreddy Peralta
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-12
Palantir 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 14193 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1758 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1254 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9476 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 766 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 993 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)