Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-18

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs DETKeider Montero
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.2
F 11.9
V 12.7
Model 7.1% Market 7.7% Gap -0.9pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.8% Market 75.9% Gap +13.9pp
BetMGM -315 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 29.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.9% Market -- Gap +7.6pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
8
Exit velocity83.3
8
Hard-hit%28.0%
12 -20 vs proj
xBA0.321
52
xSLG0.425
22
xwOBA0.292
35
BB%5.3%
17
Bat speed64.6
6
K%19.0%
71 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · CF
82
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
88
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
12
Range Runs0.8 · CF
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · CF
82
Bolts43.0 · CF
92
SB Success Rate70.6% · CF
27
Sprint Speed29.4 · CF
94
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 51.7%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions60.4%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.064
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)