Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
75
Matched
285
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-18 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 16.8%Palantir 11.1%market +5.7pp
P 16.8
F 12.8
V 12.3
4.4pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
02
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 6
 12.5%Palantir 7.7%market +4.8pp
P 12.5
F 13.4
V 9.6
3.8pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 7
 14.7%Palantir 10.0%market +4.8pp
P 14.7
F 12.3
V 8.7
6.0pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
04
Nathan Lukes TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6
 13.7%Palantir 9.1%market +4.6pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 10.9
2.8pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 960 avg 3 books
05
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 10.0%market +3.6pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 11.7
1.9pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
06
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
 16.4%Palantir 13.1%market +3.3pp
P 16.4
F 13.7
V 14.7
2.7pp 1.050xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
07
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 17.1%Palantir 13.9%market +3.2pp
P 17.1
F 14.7
V 14.2
2.9pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Elite Damageform FanDuel 590 avg 3 books
08
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 3
 12.0%Palantir 8.9%market +3.2pp
P 12.0
F 12.8
V 9.8
3.0pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 990 avg 3 books
09
Nolan Schanuel LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 7
 11.6%Palantir 8.5%market +3.1pp
P 11.6
F 12.7
V 11.6
1.2pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books
10
Keibert Ruiz WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 9.8%market +3.0pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 11.2
2.1pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
11
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 3
 15.1%Palantir 12.1%market +3.0pp
P 15.1
F 13.4
V 11.9
3.2pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 695 avg 3 books
12
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 15.2%Palantir 12.4%market +2.8pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 13.6
1.7pp 1.206xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 675 avg 3 books
13
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 1
 12.7%Palantir 9.9%market +2.7pp
P 12.7
F 12.8
V 12.0
0.8pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
14
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 1
 14.5%Palantir 11.8%market +2.7pp
P 14.5
F 13.1
V 12.3
2.2pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
15
Jakob Marsee MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2
 12.7%Palantir 10.1%market +2.6pp
P 12.7
F 12.8
V 12.6
0.2pp 1.063xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 855 avg 3 books
16
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4
 14.5%Palantir 12.9%market +1.6pp
P 14.5
F 12.8
V 14.0
1.7pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 645 avg 3 books
17
Brendan Donovan SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 6
 10.7%Palantir 9.2%market +1.6pp
P 10.7
F 12.8
V 10.0
2.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 955 avg 3 books
18
Jonathan Aranda TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 3
 13.9%Palantir 12.7%market +1.2pp
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.0pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
19
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs LADEric Lauer · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 12.7%market +1.1pp
P 13.9
F 13.0
V 12.4
1.5pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
20
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 13.0%market +0.8pp
P 13.8
F 13.4
V 11.1
2.7pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
21
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
 13.2%Palantir 12.5%market +0.7pp
P 13.2
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
22
Adley Rutschman BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 11.9%market +0.7pp
P 12.6
F 12.8
V 15.1
2.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 710 avg 3 books
23
Spencer Horwitz PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 6
 12.0%Palantir 11.3%market +0.6pp
P 12.0
F 13.1
V 10.8
2.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 750 avg 3 books
24
Jesús Sánchez TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 12.3%market +0.6pp
P 12.9
F 13.4
V 14.2
1.3pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 685 avg 3 books
25
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 7
 12.2%Palantir 12.5%market -0.3pp
P 12.2
F 12.8
V 9.0
3.8pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
26
Randy Arozarena SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
 14.6%Palantir 15.0%market -0.4pp
P 14.6
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 565 avg 3 books
27
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 6
 13.2%Palantir 14.1%market -0.8pp
P 13.2
F 13.3
V 10.9
2.4pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
28
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 14.9%market -0.9pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.8
0.6pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
29
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 5
 13.1%Palantir 14.1%market -1.0pp
P 13.1
F 12.8
V 15.2
2.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
30
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 14.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.9
F 12.8
V 15.6
2.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
31
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
 15.8%Palantir 17.2%market -1.4pp
P 15.8
F 14.7
V 17.0
2.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
32
Agustín Ramírez MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 14.6%market -1.5pp
P 13.1
F 12.8
V 12.9
0.3pp 1.063xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
33
Freddie Freeman LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 2
 15.4%Palantir 17.0%market -1.6pp
P 15.4
F 13.3
V 15.1
2.1pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
34
Zach Neto LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 1
 15.2%Palantir 17.1%market -1.8pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 17.2
3.8pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 485 avg 3 books
35
Cedric Mullins TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 5
 12.3%Palantir 14.2%market -1.9pp
P 12.3
F 12.8
V 12.7
0.6pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
36
Mookie Betts LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 14.1%Palantir 16.1%market -2.0pp
P 14.1
F 13.1
V 14.5
1.4pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
37
Marcus Semien NYM
IN
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 5
 12.2%Palantir 14.3%market -2.1pp
P 12.2
F 12.7
V 15.2
3.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
38
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 4
 13.1%Palantir 15.5%market -2.4pp
P 13.1
F 13.0
V 13.8
0.8pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
39
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 1
 13.5%Palantir 17.4%market -3.9pp
P 13.5
F 12.8
V 17.2
4.3pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
40
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 1
 8.2%Palantir 7.7%market +0.5pp
P 8.2
F 11.9
V 12.7
4.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
41
Xavier Edwards MIA
IN
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1
 7.7%Palantir 8.0%market -0.3pp
P 7.7
F 11.9
V 12.8
5.1pp 1.063xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
42
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 1
 6.9%Palantir 8.0%market -1.1pp
P 6.9
F 11.0
V 11.1
4.1pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
43
Willson Contreras BOS
IN
BOS vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 14.0%Palantir 15.9%market -1.9pp
P 14.0
F 12.8
V 15.6
2.8pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
44
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 4
 14.4%Palantir 16.3%market -1.9pp
P 14.4
F 13.3
V 15.3
2.0pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
45
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 1
 8.9%Palantir 11.0%market -2.1pp
P 8.9
F 4.0
V 10.2
6.1pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
46
Taylor Ward BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 4
 15.7%Palantir 18.7%market -3.0pp
P 15.7
F 13.4
V 16.2
2.8pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
47
George Springer TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1
 14.7%Palantir 17.7%market -3.0pp
P 14.7
F 13.3
V 15.2
1.9pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
48
Josh Naylor SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4
 13.0%Palantir 16.1%market -3.1pp
P 13.0
F 13.0
V 15.1
2.0pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 520 avg 3 books
49
Ben Rice NYY
IN
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
 13.1%Palantir 16.3%market -3.2pp
P 13.1
F 13.4
V 13.7
0.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
50
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 1
 13.6%Palantir 17.0%market -3.3pp
P 13.6
F 13.1
V 11.7
1.9pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
51
Jorge Polanco NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 16.7%market -3.4pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 15.9
2.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
52
Julio Rodríguez SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 15.1%Palantir 18.7%market -3.6pp
P 15.1
F 13.3
V 15.8
2.5pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
53
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 1
 4.3%Palantir 8.0%market -3.7pp
P 4.3
F 4.0
V 7.3
3.3pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
54
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 3
 11.9%Palantir 16.0%market -4.1pp
P 11.9
F 13.3
V 14.6
2.7pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
55
Daulton Varsho TOR
IN
TOR vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4
 13.2%Palantir 17.5%market -4.4pp
P 13.2
F 12.8
V 16.1
3.3pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 470 avg 3 books
56
Mike Trout LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 2
 14.8%Palantir 19.2%market -4.4pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 16.7
3.3pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
57
Kyle Tucker LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 3
 14.5%Palantir 19.1%market -4.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.1
V 14.7
1.6pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
58
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs SDRobbie Ray · slot 2
 14.6%Palantir 19.4%market -4.9pp
P 14.6
F 13.1
V 16.3
3.2pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
59
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 14.2%Palantir 19.2%market -5.0pp
P 14.2
F 13.3
V 17.5
4.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
60
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 4
 11.7%Palantir 17.0%market -5.2pp
P 11.7
F 12.7
V 15.4
3.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
61
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 5
 10.5%Palantir 15.8%market -5.3pp
P 10.5
F 12.7
V 14.7
4.2pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
62
Teoscar Hernández LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 13.0%Palantir 18.4%market -5.4pp
P 13.0
F 12.8
V 15.0
2.1pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
63
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 3
 13.6%Palantir 19.1%market -5.5pp
P 13.6
F 13.4
V 16.6
3.2pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
64
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 1
 13.7%Palantir 19.4%market -5.7pp
P 13.7
F 13.1
V 17.3
4.3pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
65
Jo Adell LAA
IN
LAA vs HOUCristian Javier · slot 4
 13.7%Palantir 19.6%market -5.9pp
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 15.1
1.7pp 1.106xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
66
Brandon Lowe PIT
IN
PIT vs DETKeider Montero · slot 4
 14.3%Palantir 20.4%market -6.1pp
P 14.3
F 13.1
V 14.2
1.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
67
Max Muncy LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 6
 12.4%Palantir 19.2%market -6.9pp
P 12.4
F 12.8
V 11.7
1.1pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
68
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs MINZebby Matthews · slot 2
 14.4%Palantir 21.7%market -7.4pp
P 14.4
F 13.1
V 16.0
2.9pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
69
Ketel Marte AZ
AZ vs BOSRanger Suarez · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 21.5%market -7.5pp
P 14.0
F 13.3
V 12.8
1.3pp 1.022xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 365 avg 3 books
70
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs ATLTyler Mahle · slot 3
 12.9%Palantir 21.1%market -8.2pp
P 12.9
F 13.3
V 14.5
1.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
71
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs NYYCarlos Rodón · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 23.8%market -8.7pp
P 15.1
F 13.1
V 19.5
6.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
72
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4
 12.8%Palantir 22.0%market -9.2pp
P 12.8
F 13.3
V 12.8
0.6pp 1.079xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
73
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs CHCKevin Gausman · slot 3
 11.8%Palantir 23.3%market -11.4pp
P 11.8
F 12.4
V 13.0
1.2pp 1.068xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
74
Cal Raleigh SEA
IN
SEA vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 3
 14.1%Palantir 25.6%market -11.6pp
P 14.1
F 12.7
V 15.5
2.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 290 avg 3 books
75
Shohei Ohtani LAD
IN
LAD vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 1
 14.3%Palantir 29.8%market -15.5pp
P 14.3
F 13.4
V 20.2
6.8pp 1.044xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 235 avg 3 books

Data context

0 sample flags
Status2476roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.