Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Brandon Lowe

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CWSSean Burke
Sample3181.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 14.0
Model 20.0% Market 19.9% Gap -0.6pp
DraftKings 385 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.2% Market 73.3% Gap +13.8pp
BetMGM -275 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.1% Market -- Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
82
Exit velocity91.1
88
Hard-hit%45.9%
83
xBA0.352
84
xSLG0.633
86
xwOBA0.323
72
BB%9.3%
60
Bat speed70.9
71
K%29.0%
20 -16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength84.7 · 2B
28
Outs Above Avg11.0 · 2B
97
Range Runs8.9 · 2B
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 2B
51
Sprint Speed27.0 · 2B
39
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.7%
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.4%
59
Correct Decisions66.0%
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.036
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)