Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Alec Bohm

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski
Sample3207.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 12.0
V 9.1
Model 18.6% Market 10.7% Gap +7.6pp
DraftKings 805 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.9% Market 82.0% Gap +17.1pp
BetMGM -455 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.9% Market -- Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45
Exit velocity90.5
84
Hard-hit%43.0%
72
xBA0.309
39
xSLG0.488
45
xwOBA0.322
71
BB%6.9%
32
Bat speed69.8
51
K%14.4%
90
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.2 · 3B
10
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
13
Range Runs-6.0 · 3B
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · 3B
26
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
26
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
45
Correct Decisions68.7%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherHayden Wesneski
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)